Akademiya Konoplev U20 v Dynamo Makhachkala U19 prediction · Youth Championship

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:59

Akademiya Konoplev U20 3–2 Dynamo Makhachkala U19 AKADEMIYA KONOPLEV U20 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Akademiya Konoplev U20 win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.256

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Akademiya Konoplev U20 win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Akademiya Konoplev U20 was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–20–21
1′KICK-OFF Akademiya Konoplev U20 v Dynamo Makhachkala U19
14′A goal for Akademiya Konoplev U20 on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–8
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Akademiya Konoplev U20 1–0 Dynamo Makhachkala U19
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Akademiya Konoplev U20 win: 59% at kick-off, 78% now
15′We published Akademiya Konoplev U20 at 59%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–14–8
27′Akademiya Konoplev U20 score on 27′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–2
27′We published Akademiya Konoplev U20 at 59%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Akademiya Konoplev U20 2–0 Dynamo Makhachkala U19
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Akademiya Konoplev U20 win: 59% at kick-off, 93% now
41′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′HALF-TIME Akademiya Konoplev U20 3–0 Dynamo Makhachkala U19
46′Akademiya Konoplev U20 find the net on 45′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
46′We published Akademiya Konoplev U20 at 59%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Akademiya Konoplev U20 3–0 Dynamo Makhachkala U19
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Akademiya Konoplev U20 win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
46′SECOND HALF Akademiya Konoplev U20 3–0 Dynamo Makhachkala U19
61′We published Akademiya Konoplev U20 at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′A goal for Dynamo Makhachkala U19 on 64′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
64′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Akademiya Konoplev U20 3–1 Dynamo Makhachkala U19
77′Dynamo Makhachkala U19 score on 77′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 87–12–1
77′We published Akademiya Konoplev U20 at 59%. Our model now makes it 87%. 3–2 · 87–12–1
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Akademiya Konoplev U20 3–2 Dynamo Makhachkala U19
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Akademiya Konoplev U20 win: 59% at kick-off, 87% now
78′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 88–11–1
90′PENALTY MISSED · 90' Dynamo Makhachkala U19
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Akademiya Konoplev U20 win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Akademiya Konoplev U20 3–2 Dynamo Makhachkala U19
FTAkademiya Konoplev U20 3–2 Dynamo Makhachkala U19 · Akademiya Konoplev U20 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Akademiya Konoplev U20 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Akademiya Konoplev U20 59%, draw 19%, Dynamo Makhachkala U19 22%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Akademiya Konoplev U20 v Dynamo Makhachkala U19Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Akademiya Konoplev U20 win59%

Draw19%

Dynamo Makhachkala U19 win22%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Akademiya Konoplev U20

Dynamo Makhachkala U19

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Youth Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	25	+12	44
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	25	−23	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · akademiya konoplev u20 winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Akademiya Konoplev U20 a 59% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Akademiya Konoplev U20 v Dynamo Makhachkala U19~~2.27 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 21 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 44 v 27~~6 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Akademiya Konoplev U20 win	59%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Dynamo Makhachkala U19 win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Akademiya Konoplev U20 or draw	78%	–	–
Akademiya Konoplev U20 clean sheet	27%	–	–
Dynamo Makhachkala U19 clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 2.9 3.9 2.5 1 6.5 8.2 5.4 2.4 2 7.1 9.2 6.0 2.7 3 5.4 6.9 4.5 4 3.1 3.9 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Akademiya Konoplev U20 down, Dynamo Makhachkala U19 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,474 Youth Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Youth Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.5% of games this season, across 200 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Akademiya Konoplev U20 at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dynamo Makhachkala U19 away: 0.83 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.27 goals for Akademiya Konoplev U20, 1.31 for Dynamo Makhachkala U19. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DYN 3–2 AKA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Youth Championship this season · since 21 Aug

AKADEMIYA KONOPLEV U20

WWWWWL3–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–2

DYNAMO MAKHACHKALA U19

LWWLWW0–8 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CSKA Moskva U19	25	+46	59
2	Zenit U19	25	+38	54
3	Krasnodar U19	25	+33	53
4	Rodina Moscow U19	25	+32	51
5	Lokomotiv Moskva U19	26	+22	50
6	Akademiya Konoplev U20	25	+12	44
7	Almaz Antey U19	25	−2	41
8	Spartak Moskva U19	25	−4	31
9	Rostov U19	25	−7	31
10	Dinamo Moskva U19	25	−8	29
11	Dynamo Makhachkala U19	25	−23	27
12	Ural U20	26	−23	25
13	Chertanovo U20	25	−23	23
14	Nizhny Novgorod U19	25	−34	22
15	Fakel U19	25	−25	16
16	Rubin Kazan U20	25	−34	15