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Zenit W v Chertanovo W

Zenit W

1–2Full time

Chertanovo W

Supreme Division Women · SUN 18 OCT · Akademiya Zenit pole 5

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Zenit W 1–2 Chertanovo W ZENIT W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zenit W win~~85%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.641

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zenit W win at 85%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Zenit W 85% before kick-off, 85% now. 0–0 · 85–11–5
1′KICK-OFF Zenit W v Chertanovo W
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Zenit W win: 85% at kick-off, 75% now
36′We said Zenit W at 85%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 73%. 0–0 · 73–21–6
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Chertanovo W
44′We said Zenit W at 85%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 69–25–6
45′HALF-TIME Zenit W 0–0 Chertanovo W
46′SECOND HALF Zenit W 0–0 Chertanovo W
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Zenit W win: 85% at kick-off, 65% now
51′We said Zenit W at 85%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–29–6
53′Zenit W score on 53′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–1
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Zenit W 1–0 Chertanovo W
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Zenit W win: 85% at kick-off, 94% now
56′52′: Z. Stupar on the scoresheet for Zenit W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–1
72′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Chertanovo W · On: A. Shkalova · Off: E. Golik Corrected
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Zenit W win: 85% at kick-off, 95% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Chertanovo W · On: A. Shkalova · Off: E. Golik
73′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Zenit W · On: Kiki · Off: D. Ishmukhametova
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zenit W · On: Z. Sharifova · Off: A. Shuba
79′Chertanovo W find the net on 79′. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–67–4
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Zenit W 1–1 Chertanovo W
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Zenit W win: 85% at kick-off, 29% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Zenit W win 29%)
80′We said Zenit W at 85%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–69–4
81′Chertanovo W level it on 78′ through V. Kryukova. 1–1. 1–1 · 25–72–4
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Zenit W win: 85% at kick-off, 25% now
82′We said Zenit W at 85%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–1 · 22–74–3
84′We said Zenit W at 85%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–80–3
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Zenit W win: 85% at kick-off, 15% now
87′A goal for Chertanovo W on 87′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–13–86
87′We said Zenit W at 85%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–13–86
87′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–2 · 1–13–86
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Zenit W 1–2 Chertanovo W
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Zenit W win: 85% at kick-off, 1% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Chertanovo W win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
88′A. Akatyeva scores for Chertanovo W on 86′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Zenit W · On: E. Lazareva · Off: A. Pozdeeva
92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Chertanovo W · On: A. Sakharova · Off: P. Semina
FTFULL TIME Zenit W 1–2 Chertanovo W
FTZenit W 1–2 Chertanovo W · Zenit W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zenit W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zenit W 85%, draw 11%, Chertanovo W 5%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Zenit W v Chertanovo WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Zenit W win85%

Draw11%

Chertanovo W win5%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 22

VenueAkademiya Zenit pole 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zenit W

Chertanovo W

15Days since last match15

Last match: 3 Oct · Supreme Division Women

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zenit w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

85% The market–

Us85%

We make Zenit W an 85% chance to win. The model expects 3.0–0.5, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zenit W v Chertanovo W~~3.01 – 0.49

~~Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 1 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 53 v 24~~1 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zenit W win	85%	–	–
Draw	11%	–	–
Chertanovo W win	5%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Zenit W or draw	95%	–	–
Zenit W clean sheet	62%	–	–
Chertanovo W clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.3%

0123450 3.6 1 9.7 4.9 2 13.3 6.5 3 12.7 6.0 4 9.5 4.3 5 6.1 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Zenit W down, Chertanovo W across0–5 goals a side shown (89.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 852 Supreme Division Women matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Supreme Division Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.6% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zenit W at home: 3.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chertanovo W away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.01 goals for Zenit W, 0.49 for Chertanovo W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~1 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHE 0–5 ZEN · ZEN 1–0 CHE · CHE 0–5 ZEN · CHE 0–3 ZEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 1 Aug

ZENIT W

WWWWWW3–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

CHERTANOVO W

WLDLLW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit W	19	+47	53
2	CSKA Moskva W	19	+42	49
3	Spartak Moskva W	19	+32	43
4	Lokomotiv Moskva W	19	+26	40
5	Krylya Sovetov W	19	+5	32
6	Dinamo Moskva W	19	+3	31
7	Chertanovo W	20	−11	24
8	Rubin Kazan W	20	−4	23
9	Zvezda Perm W	21	−20	20
10	Krasnodar W	19	−14	14
11	Rostov W	20	−38	13
12	Ryazan W	20	−30	9
13	Yenisey W	20	−38	3