Yenisey W v Zvezda Perm W prediction · Supreme Division Women

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 09:32

Yenisey W 0–1 Zvezda Perm W ZVEZDA PERM W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Zvezda Perm W win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.423

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zvezda Perm W win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Zvezda Perm W 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 23–30–47
1′KICK-OFF Yenisey W v Zvezda Perm W
15′A goal for Zvezda Perm W on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–16–77
15′We said Zvezda Perm W at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 0–1 · 6–16–77
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Yenisey W 0–1 Zvezda Perm W
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Zvezda Perm W win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 5–16–79
38′We said Zvezda Perm W at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
44′Zvezda Perm W are down to ten from 43′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 4–16–80
44′🟥 RED CARD · 43' Zvezda Perm W
45′HALF-TIME Yenisey W 0–1 Zvezda Perm W
46′SECOND HALF Yenisey W 0–1 Zvezda Perm W
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Yenisey W · On: A. Nizamutdinova · Off: V. Smirnova
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Yenisey W · On: A. Altukhova · Off: G. Geybieva
57′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Yenisey W · On: P. Dolmatova · Off: V. Zarubina
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Zvezda Perm W · On: E. Sergeychik · Off: L. Ovsyannikova
62′We said Zvezda Perm W at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Zvezda Perm W win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Yenisey W · On: K. Vasilyeva · Off: D. Kruchenkova
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Yenisey W · On: D. Pluzhnik · Off: K. Januskevicius
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Yenisey W
75′We said Zvezda Perm W at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
83′We said Zvezda Perm W at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Zvezda Perm W win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Yenisey W 0–1 Zvezda Perm W
FTYenisey W 0–1 Zvezda Perm W · Zvezda Perm W win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zvezda Perm W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yenisey W 23%, draw 30%, Zvezda Perm W 47%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Yenisey W v Zvezda Perm WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Yenisey W win23%

Draw30%

Zvezda Perm W win47%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 07:00

RoundMatchday 22

VenueFootball Arena Yenisei

Line-ups

Yenisey W

Zvezda Perm W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yenisey W

Zvezda Perm W

15Days since last match15

Last match: 3 Oct · Supreme Division Women

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Zvezda Perm W	20	−21	17
13	Yenisey W	19	−37	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Yenisey W

Formation not confirmed

12 P. Malayeva

13 K. Januskevicius

22 T. Ananyeva

33 A. Krasikova

7 V. Zarubina

17 A. Shalimova

18 G. Geybieva

35 D. Kruchenkova

76 E. Stanovova

88 V. Smirnova

53 O. Tir

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · K. Sergienko

1 · E. Senchenko

3 · K. Isupova

20 · A. Altukhova

23 · A. Nizamutdinova

10 · K. Vasilyeva

30 · D. Pluzhnik

99 · P. Dolmatova

Zvezda Perm W

Formation not confirmed

63 E. Sevko

18 D. Eremenkova

33 A. Faskhutdinova

66 E. Pirogova

91 S. Artsimovich

24 A. Trenkina

16 K. Shakhova

22 A. Nurgalieva

29 L. Ovsyannikova

47 A. Pervushina

53 K. Kuzishina

Coach · Elena Suslova

Substitutes

21 · E. Terikhova

9 · C. Tikhonovodova

19 · Y. Ray

97 · E. Sergeychik

7 · O. Kurochkina

Our number · zvezda perm w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Zvezda Perm W a 47% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.2, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yenisey W v Zvezda Perm W~~0.78 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 1 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 3 v 17~~13 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yenisey W win	23%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Zvezda Perm W win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Yenisey W or draw	53%	–	–
Yenisey W clean sheet	30%	–	–
Zvezda Perm W clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.4%

0123450 13.9 16.4 10.0 4.3 1 10.3 12.2 7.6 3.3 2 4.0 4.9 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yenisey W down, Zvezda Perm W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 852 Supreme Division Women matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Supreme Division Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.6% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yenisey W at home: 0.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Zvezda Perm W away: 0.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.78 goals for Yenisey W, 1.25 for Zvezda Perm W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ZVE 1–1 YEN · YEN 1–1 ZVE · ZVE 1–0 YEN · ZVE 1–0 YEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 1 Aug

YENISEY W

LLLLLL2–3 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

ZVEZDA PERM W

LLLLDD0–1 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit W	19	+47	53
2	CSKA Moskva W	19	+42	49
3	Spartak Moskva W	19	+32	43
4	Lokomotiv Moskva W	19	+26	40
5	Krylya Sovetov W	19	+5	32
6	Dinamo Moskva W	19	+3	31
7	Chertanovo W	20	−11	24
8	Rubin Kazan W	20	−4	23
9	Zvezda Perm W	20	−21	17
10	Krasnodar W	19	−14	14
11	Rostov W	20	−38	13
12	Ryazan W	20	−30	9
13	Yenisey W	19	−37	3