Spartak Moskva W v Chertanovo W prediction · Supreme Division Women

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Spartak Moskva W 3–1 Chertanovo W SPARTAK MOSKVA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartak Moskva W win~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.072

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Moskva W win at 78%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Spartak Moskva W 78% before kick-off, 78% now. 0–0 · 78–14–8
1′KICK-OFF Spartak Moskva W v Chertanovo W
24′Spartak Moskva W score on 24′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 91–7–2
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Spartak Moskva W 1–0 Chertanovo W
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Spartak Moskva W win: 78% at kick-off, 91% now
25′We said Spartak Moskva W at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–0 · 91–7–2
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 91–7–2
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Chertanovo W
41′Spartak Moskva W find the net on 41′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Spartak Moskva W 2–0 Chertanovo W
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Spartak Moskva W win: 78% at kick-off, 98% now
42′We said Spartak Moskva W at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Spartak Moskva W
44′A goal for Chertanovo W on 44′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 90–8–2
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Spartak Moskva W 2–1 Chertanovo W
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Spartak Moskva W win: 78% at kick-off, 90% now
45′HALF-TIME Spartak Moskva W 2–1 Chertanovo W
46′SECOND HALF Spartak Moskva W 2–1 Chertanovo W
53′Spartak Moskva W score on 52′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
53′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Spartak Moskva W 3–1 Chertanovo W
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Spartak Moskva W win: 78% at kick-off, 99% now
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Chertanovo W
62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Chertanovo W · On: V. Sokach · Off: A. Akatyeva
62′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Chertanovo W · On: E. Gruzdeva · Off: M. Koptsova
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Spartak Moskva W · On: A. Kolokolchikova · Off: N. Morozova
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Spartak Moskva W · On: N. Mashina · Off: K. Petukhova
74′We said Spartak Moskva W at 78% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Spartak Moskva W · On: L. Kulis · Off: K. Cherkasova
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Chertanovo W · On: V. Novikova · Off: E. Golik
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Chertanovo W · On: A. Sakharova · Off: A. Shkalova
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Chertanovo W · On: V. Kryukova · Off: V. Belyaeva
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Spartak Moskva W · On: V. Kuznetsova · Off: G. Grzywinska
FTFULL TIME Spartak Moskva W 3–1 Chertanovo W
FTSpartak Moskva W 3–1 Chertanovo W · Spartak Moskva W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Moskva W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spartak Moskva W 78%, draw 14%, Chertanovo W 8%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Spartak Moskva W v Chertanovo WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Spartak Moskva W win78%

Draw14%

Chertanovo W win8%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 23

VenueCherenkov Academy Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spartak Moskva W

Chertanovo W

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Supreme Division Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Spartak Moskva W	20	+34	46
7	Chertanovo W	21	−10	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartak moskva w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

78% The market–

Us78%

We make Spartak Moskva W a 78% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spartak Moskva W v Chertanovo W~~2.69 – 0.69

~~Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 8 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 46 v 27~~3 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spartak Moskva W win

Published at 80%, 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartak Moskva W win	78%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Chertanovo W win	8%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Spartak Moskva W or draw	92%	–	–
Spartak Moskva W clean sheet	51%	–	–
Chertanovo W clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.1%

0123450 3.8 2.7 1 9.6 6.4 2.3 2 12.1 8.1 2.9 3 10.5 7.0 2.5 4 7.1 4.7 5 4.0 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Moskva W down, Chertanovo W across0–5 goals a side shown (93.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 858 Supreme Division Women matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Supreme Division Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartak Moskva W at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chertanovo W away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.69 goals for Spartak Moskva W, 0.69 for Chertanovo W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–3 SPA · SPA 3–0 CHE · CHE 1–6 SPA · SPA 3–2 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 8 Aug

SPARTAK MOSKVA W

WWWWLW4–1 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

CHERTANOVO W

LDLLWW1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit W	20	+46	53
2	CSKA Moskva W	20	+44	52
3	Spartak Moskva W	20	+34	46
4	Lokomotiv Moskva W	20	+26	41
5	Dinamo Moskva W	20	+3	32
6	Krylya Sovetov W	20	+4	32
7	Chertanovo W	21	−10	27
8	Rubin Kazan W	21	−6	23
9	Zvezda Perm W	21	−20	20
10	Krasnodar W	20	−13	17
11	Rostov W	20	−38	13
12	Ryazan W	22	−30	12
13	Yenisey W	21	−40	3