Rubin Kazan W v Spartak Moskva W prediction · Supreme Division Women

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Rubin Kazan W 0–2 Spartak Moskva W SPARTAK MOSKVA W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Spartak Moskva W win~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.083

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Moskva W win at 77%.
1′Much as we predicted: Spartak Moskva W was 77% before kick-off and our model makes it 77% now. 0–0 · 8–15–77
1′KICK-OFF Rubin Kazan W v Spartak Moskva W
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Spartak Moskva W win: 77% at kick-off, 67% now
35′We said Spartak Moskva W at 77%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 65%. 0–0 · 10–25–65
37′We said Spartak Moskva W at 77%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 10–26–64
45′HALF-TIME Rubin Kazan W 0–0 Spartak Moskva W
46′We said Spartak Moskva W at 77%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 10–31–59
46′SECOND HALF Rubin Kazan W 0–0 Spartak Moskva W
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Spartak Moskva W win: 77% at kick-off, 57% now
50′A goal for Spartak Moskva W on 50′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 1–8–90
50′We published Spartak Moskva W at 77%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–8–90
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Rubin Kazan W 0–1 Spartak Moskva W
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Spartak Moskva W win: 77% at kick-off, 90% now
52′Spartak Moskva W score on 52′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Rubin Kazan W 0–2 Spartak Moskva W
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Spartak Moskva W win: 77% at kick-off, 99% now
53′We published Spartak Moskva W at 77%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
54′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–99
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Spartak Moskva W
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Rubin Kazan W · On: V. Dergousova · Off: N. Trofimova
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Rubin Kazan W · On: N. Voskobovich · Off: L. Yukhaeva
73′We published Spartak Moskva W at 77%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
73′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Spartak Moskva W · On: I. Svistunova · Off: D. Blagojevic
73′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Spartak Moskva W · On: N. Mashina · Off: K. Petukhova
FTFULL TIME Rubin Kazan W 0–2 Spartak Moskva W
FTRubin Kazan W 0–2 Spartak Moskva W · Spartak Moskva W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Moskva W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rubin Kazan W 8%, draw 15%, Spartak Moskva W 77%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Rubin Kazan W v Spartak Moskva WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rubin Kazan W win8%

Draw15%

Spartak Moskva W win77%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 22

VenueAk Bars Arena

Line-ups

Rubin Kazan W

Spartak Moskva W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rubin Kazan W

Spartak Moskva W

15Days since last match15

Last match: 3 Oct · Supreme Division Women

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Spartak Moskva W	19	+32	43
8	Rubin Kazan W	20	−4	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rubin Kazan W

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Eremeeva

2 D. Mammadova

12 N. Ulyanina

47 Y. Sholgina

52 K. Oleksyuk

10 M. Barvinok

17 A. Zaynutdinova

18 N. Trofimova

24 K. Alpatova

88 L. Yukhaeva

27 N. Nurmieva

Coach · –

Substitutes

67 · A. Us

5 · K. Kiyanka

11 · A. Dorofeyeva

26 · M. Kuznetsova

75 · N. Nasibullova

4 · L. Ovechkina

23 · N. Voskobovich

21 · A. Tsyplova

99 · V. Dergousova

Spartak Moskva W

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Scherbakova

3 A. Kozhnikova

21 N. Morozova

33 Y. Kamorina

8 D. Blagojevic

10 M. Fedorova

20 T. Filipovic

51 G. Grzywinska

93 C. Petkus

11 K. Cherkasova

46 K. Petukhova

Coach · Vadim Kozlov

Substitutes

24 · V. Nosenko

18 · A. Myagkova

23 · L. Kulis

7 · L. Yakupova

12 · A. Kolokolchikova

17 · I. Svistunova

9 · N. Mashina

55 · V. Kuznetsova

Our number · spartak moskva w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

77% The market–

Us77%

We make Spartak Moskva W a 77% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–2.5, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rubin Kazan W v Spartak Moskva W~~0.66 – 2.51

~~Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 1 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 43~~8 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rubin Kazan W win	8%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Spartak Moskva W win	77%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Rubin Kazan W or draw	23%	–	–
Rubin Kazan W clean sheet	9%	–	–
Spartak Moskva W clean sheet	52%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 13.0%

0123450 4.6 10.9 13.0 10.7 6.8 3.61 3.0 6.9 8.3 6.9 4.3 2.32 2.3 2.8 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rubin Kazan W down, Spartak Moskva W across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 852 Supreme Division Women matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Supreme Division Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.6% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 4.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rubin Kazan W at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Moskva W away: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.66 goals for Rubin Kazan W, 2.51 for Spartak Moskva W. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SPA 1–1 RUB · RUB 1–5 SPA · SPA 6–0 RUB · SPA 3–0 RUB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 1 Aug

RUBIN KAZAN W

DLLDWL1–1 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

SPARTAK MOSKVA W

WWWWWL1–0 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit W	19	+47	53
2	CSKA Moskva W	19	+42	49
3	Spartak Moskva W	19	+32	43
4	Lokomotiv Moskva W	19	+26	40
5	Krylya Sovetov W	19	+5	32
6	Dinamo Moskva W	19	+3	31
7	Chertanovo W	20	−11	24
8	Rubin Kazan W	20	−4	23
9	Zvezda Perm W	21	−20	20
10	Krasnodar W	19	−14	14
11	Rostov W	20	−38	13
12	Ryazan W	20	−30	9
13	Yenisey W	20	−38	3