Rostov W v Rubin Kazan W prediction · Supreme Division Women

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Rostov W 1–1 Rubin Kazan W RUBIN KAZAN W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rubin Kazan W win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.802

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rubin Kazan W win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rubin Kazan W was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 26–28–46
1′KICK-OFF Rostov W v Rubin Kazan W
33′Rostov W score on 33′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 61–25–14
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Rostov W 1–0 Rubin Kazan W
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Rubin Kazan W win: 46% at kick-off, 14% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Rostov W win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Rubin Kazan W win 39%)
34′We said Rubin Kazan W at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 61–25–13
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 61–25–13
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Rostov W
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Rubin Kazan W
45′HALF-TIME Rostov W 1–1 Rubin Kazan W
46′Rubin Kazan W find the net on 45′. 1–1. 1–1 · 21–44–35
46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Rostov W 1–1 Rubin Kazan W
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Rubin Kazan W win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Rostov W win 65%)
46′SECOND HALF Rostov W 1–1 Rubin Kazan W
47′We said Rubin Kazan W at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 21–45–34
58′We said Rubin Kazan W at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 18–53–29
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Rostov W
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Rubin Kazan W · On: L. Yukhaeva · Off: V. Dergousova
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Rostov W
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Rubin Kazan W win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
66′We said Rubin Kazan W at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 15–61–24
73′We said Rubin Kazan W at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 12–69–19
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Rubin Kazan W win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
83′We said Rubin Kazan W at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 6–85–9
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Rubin Kazan W win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Rostov W · On: M. Krivosheenko · Off: K. Goloshchekova
90′We said Rubin Kazan W at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
FTFULL TIME Rostov W 1–1 Rubin Kazan W
FTRostov W 1–1 Rubin Kazan W · Rubin Kazan W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rubin Kazan W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rostov W 26%, draw 28%, Rubin Kazan W 46%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Rostov W v Rubin Kazan WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rostov W win26%

Draw28%

Rubin Kazan W win46%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 23

VenueStadion Lokomotiv Rostov na Donu

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rostov W

Rubin Kazan W

21Days since last match6

Last match: 3 Oct · Supreme Division Women

Last match: 18 Oct · Supreme Division Women

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Rubin Kazan W	21	−6	23
11	Rostov W	20	−38	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rubin kazan w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Rubin Kazan W a 46% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rostov W v Rubin Kazan W~~0.88 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 8 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 13 v 23~~11 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rostov W win	26%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Rubin Kazan W win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Rostov W or draw	54%	–	–
Rostov W clean sheet	28%	–	–
Rubin Kazan W clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.9%

0123450 11.8 14.9 9.6 4.3 1 10.0 12.1 7.8 3.5 2 4.5 5.5 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rostov W down, Rubin Kazan W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 858 Supreme Division Women matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Supreme Division Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rostov W at home: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rubin Kazan W away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Rostov W, 1.31 for Rubin Kazan W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RUB 4–0 ROS · RUB 0–1 ROS · ROS 0–0 RUB · ROS 1–2 RUB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 8 Aug

ROSTOV W

LWLLDD0–5 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 0–0

RUBIN KAZAN W

LLDWLL1–4 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit W	20	+46	53
2	CSKA Moskva W	20	+44	52
3	Spartak Moskva W	20	+34	46
4	Lokomotiv Moskva W	20	+26	41
5	Dinamo Moskva W	20	+3	32
6	Krylya Sovetov W	20	+4	32
7	Chertanovo W	21	−10	27
8	Rubin Kazan W	21	−6	23
9	Zvezda Perm W	21	−20	20
10	Krasnodar W	20	−13	17
11	Rostov W	20	−38	13
12	Ryazan W	22	−30	12
13	Yenisey W	21	−40	3