Krasnodar W v Lokomotiv Moskva W prediction · Supreme Division Women

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Krasnodar W 0–1 Lokomotiv Moskva W LOKOMOTIV MOSKVA W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Lokomotiv Moskva W win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.277

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lokomotiv Moskva W win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lokomotiv Moskva W was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 16–27–57
1′KICK-OFF Krasnodar W v Lokomotiv Moskva W
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Lokomotiv Moskva W win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
36′A goal for Lokomotiv Moskva W on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–13–85
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Krasnodar W 0–1 Lokomotiv Moskva W
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Lokomotiv Moskva W win: 57% at kick-off, 85% now
37′We published Lokomotiv Moskva W at 57%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 3–13–85
37′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 3–13–85
45′HALF-TIME Krasnodar W 0–1 Lokomotiv Moskva W
46′SECOND HALF Krasnodar W 0–1 Lokomotiv Moskva W
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Lokomotiv Moskva W win: 57% at kick-off, 87% now
67′We published Lokomotiv Moskva W at 57%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Lokomotiv Moskva W
75′🟨 YELLOW · 71' A. Likhota · Krasnodar W
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lokomotiv Moskva W · On: P. Pavlova · Off: J. Cubrilo
81′We published Lokomotiv Moskva W at 57%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Lokomotiv Moskva W win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Krasnodar W · On: A. Godyna · Off: P. Organova
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Krasnodar W · On: S. Denisko · Off: D. Novosad
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Krasnodar W · On: E. Vasechkina · Off: I. Vorotyntseva
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Lokomotiv Moskva W · On: V. Bizenkova · Off: E. Favour
88′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Krasnodar W · On: E. Krivenko · Off: S. Timonina
FTFULL TIME Krasnodar W 0–1 Lokomotiv Moskva W
FTKrasnodar W 0–1 Lokomotiv Moskva W · Lokomotiv Moskva W win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokomotiv Moskva W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Krasnodar W 16%, draw 26%, Lokomotiv Moskva W 57%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Krasnodar W v Lokomotiv Moskva WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Krasnodar W win16%

Draw26%

Lokomotiv Moskva W win57%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 23

VenueMalaya Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Krasnodar W

Lokomotiv Moskva W

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Supreme Division Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Lokomotiv Moskva W	20	+26	41
10	Krasnodar W	20	−13	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lokomotiv moskva w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Lokomotiv Moskva W a 57% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–1.5, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Krasnodar W v Lokomotiv Moskva W~~0.63 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 8 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 41~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lokomotiv Moskva W win

Published at 59%, 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Krasnodar W win	16%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Lokomotiv Moskva W win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Krasnodar W or draw	43%	–	–
Krasnodar W clean sheet	24%	–	–
Lokomotiv Moskva W clean sheet	54%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 18.0%

0123450 12.7 18.0 13.0 6.5 2.5 1 7.8 10.8 7.9 3.9 2 2.5 3.5 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Krasnodar W down, Lokomotiv Moskva W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 858 Supreme Division Women matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Supreme Division Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.2% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Krasnodar W at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lokomotiv Moskva W away: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.63 goals for Krasnodar W, 1.48 for Lokomotiv Moskva W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LOK 2–0 KRA · KRA 0–2 LOK · LOK 0–1 KRA · KRA 0–2 LOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 8 Aug

KRASNODAR W

LLDDDW1–4 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

LOKOMOTIV MOSKVA W

WWWDWD2–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit W	20	+46	53
2	CSKA Moskva W	20	+44	52
3	Spartak Moskva W	20	+34	46
4	Lokomotiv Moskva W	20	+26	41
5	Dinamo Moskva W	20	+3	32
6	Krylya Sovetov W	20	+4	32
7	Chertanovo W	21	−10	27
8	Rubin Kazan W	21	−6	23
9	Zvezda Perm W	21	−20	20
10	Krasnodar W	20	−13	17
11	Rostov W	20	−38	13
12	Ryazan W	22	−30	12
13	Yenisey W	21	−40	3