Krasnodar W v Krylya Sovetov W prediction · Supreme Division Women

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Krasnodar W 1–0 Krylya Sovetov W KRYLYA SOVETOV W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Krylya Sovetov W win~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.671

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Krylya Sovetov W win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Krylya Sovetov W was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 33–31–36
1′KICK-OFF Krasnodar W v Krylya Sovetov W
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Krylya Sovetov W
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Krylya Sovetov W win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Krasnodar W 0–0 Krylya Sovetov W
46′SECOND HALF Krasnodar W 0–0 Krylya Sovetov W
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Krylya Sovetov W win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
54′We said Krylya Sovetov W at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–53–24
60′Krasnodar W score on 60′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–4
60′We said Krylya Sovetov W at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 78–18–4
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Krasnodar W 1–0 Krylya Sovetov W
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Krylya Sovetov W win: 36% at kick-off, 4% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Krasnodar W win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
61′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 79–18–3
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Krylya Sovetov W
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Krasnodar W · On: A. Karataeva · Off: P. Organova
82′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Krylya Sovetov W · On: S. Prokopyeva · Off: V. Solodukhina
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Krasnodar W
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Krasnodar W
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Krylya Sovetov W
92′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Krylya Sovetov W · On: K. Konovaeva · Off: A. Rudneva
92′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Krylya Sovetov W · On: A. Linnik · Off: A. Turieva
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Krylya Sovetov W
FTFULL TIME Krasnodar W 1–0 Krylya Sovetov W
FTKrasnodar W 1–0 Krylya Sovetov W · Krylya Sovetov W win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Krylya Sovetov W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Krasnodar W 33%, draw 31%, Krylya Sovetov W 36%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Krasnodar W v Krylya Sovetov WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Krasnodar W win33%

Draw31%

Krylya Sovetov W win36%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 22

VenueMalaya Arena

Line-ups

Krasnodar W

Krylya Sovetov W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Krasnodar W

Krylya Sovetov W

15Days since last match15

Last match: 3 Oct · Supreme Division Women

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Krylya Sovetov W	19	+5	32
10	Krasnodar W	19	−14	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Krasnodar W

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Silina

9 S. Yastrebinskaya

14 A. Piligrym

23 S. Timonina

57 A. Nesterenko

13 A. Kadigrob

6 D. Novosad

8 P. Organova

10 I. Vorotyntseva

17 A. Likhota

74 M. Boldyreva

Coach · –

Substitutes

44 · V. Sanzharovskaya

45 · M. Vartanyan

53 · A. Vishnevetskaya

20 · V. Milyaeva

7 · A. Karataeva

Krylya Sovetov W

Formation not confirmed

61 K. Fedorova

2 N. Cavic

7 O. Eremeeva

9 A. Peshkova

13 M. Durnova

30 S. Shishkina

6 S. Ivanova

8 A. Turieva

10 T. Matic

17 V. Solodukhina

77 A. Rudneva

Coach · –

Substitutes

69 · S. Prokopyeva

3 · A. Kovtun

11 · A. Shvedova

19 · N. Osipova

25 · M. Kortunova

5 · M. Stepasheva

18 · M. Medved

33 · K. Konovaeva

93 · A. Linnik

Our number · krylya sovetov w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Krylya Sovetov W a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Krasnodar W v Krylya Sovetov W~~0.96 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 1 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 32~~10 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Krasnodar W win	33%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Krylya Sovetov W win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Krasnodar W or draw	64%	–	–
Krasnodar W clean sheet	37%	–	–
Krylya Sovetov W clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.6%

0123450 14.6 14.1 7.1 2.5 1 13.4 12.9 6.5 2.3 2 6.4 6.2 3.1 3 2.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Krasnodar W down, Krylya Sovetov W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 852 Supreme Division Women matches up to 3 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Supreme Division Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.6% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Krasnodar W at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Krylya Sovetov W away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Krasnodar W, 1.01 for Krylya Sovetov W. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KRY 1–1 KRA · KRY 3–1 KRA · KRA 3–1 KRY · KRA 0–0 KRY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Supreme Division Women this season · since 1 Aug

KRASNODAR W

LLLDDD1–3 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

KRYLYA SOVETOV W

LWLWDD1–4 · 4–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Zenit W	19	+47	53
2	CSKA Moskva W	19	+42	49
3	Spartak Moskva W	19	+32	43
4	Lokomotiv Moskva W	19	+26	40
5	Krylya Sovetov W	19	+5	32
6	Dinamo Moskva W	19	+3	31
7	Chertanovo W	20	−11	24
8	Rubin Kazan W	20	−4	23
9	Zvezda Perm W	21	−20	20
10	Krasnodar W	19	−14	14
11	Rostov W	20	−38	13
12	Ryazan W	20	−30	9
13	Yenisey W	20	−38	3