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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Second League - Group 4 › Ural II v Izhevsk

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Ural II v Izhevsk

Ural II
0–2Full time
Izhevsk

Second League - Group 4 · MON 19 OCT · Bazhovia Stadium

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 11:30
Ural II 0–2 Izhevsk URAL II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ural II win38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.612

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ural II win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Ural II 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–25–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ural II v Izhevsk
  4. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Ural II win 32%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Ural II 0–0 Izhevsk
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Ural II 0–0 Izhevsk
  7. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.0 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–43–28
  8. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Ural II win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
  9. 62′We said Ural II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–48–26
  10. 67′We said Ural II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–23
  11. 74′We said Ural II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–63–18
  12. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Ural II win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
  13. 77′Izhevsk score on 76′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–15–84
  14. 77′We said Ural II at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–15–84
  15. 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Ural II 0–1 Izhevsk
  16. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Ural II win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
  17. 77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Izhevsk win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 15%)
  18. 80′77′: E. Totskiy on the scoresheet for Izhevsk, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 1–12–87
  19. 93′Izhevsk find the net on 90′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  20. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Ural II 0–2 Izhevsk
  21. FTFULL TIME Ural II 0–2 Izhevsk
  22. FTUral II 0–2 Izhevsk · Ural II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ural II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ural II 38%, draw 25%, Izhevsk 37%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Ural II v IzhevskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Ural II win38%
Draw25%
Izhevsk win37%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 09:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

VenueBazhovia Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ural II

Izhevsk

8Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 4

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Izhevsk22−223
9Ural II22−1022

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ural ii winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
38% The market–
Us38%

We make Ural II a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ural II v Izhevsk1.54 – 1.51
Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 6 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 22 v 239 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ural II win38%––
Draw25%––
Izhevsk win37%––
Over 2.5 goals58%––
Both teams to score61%––
Over 1.5 goals81%––
Over 3.5 goals36%––
Ural II or draw63%––
Ural II clean sheet23%––
Izhevsk clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%
0123450 5.7 6.6 5.4 2.7 1 6.8 11.4 8.0 4.1 2 5.7 8.3 6.1 3.1 3 3.0 4.3 3.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ural II down, Izhevsk across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026
Goals a meeting1.67
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsIZH 2–1 URA · URA 0–0 IZH · IZH 0–2 URA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept

URAL II

WDLLLD1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–1

IZHEVSK

LWWLWW0–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Khimik Dzerzhinsk22+4156
2KDV22+2053
3Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod22+1843
4Akron II22+1232
5Krylya Sovetov II22−127
6Dinamo Barnaul22−1926
7Orenburg II22−426
8Izhevsk22−223
9Ural II22−1022
10Rubin Kazan 222−1020
11Nosta22−2818
12Chelyabinsk II22−1717

The competition's standings before kick-off.