Ural II v Chelyabinsk II prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ural IIDrawChelyabinsk II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 08:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ural II 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ural II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ural II 49%, draw 27%, Chelyabinsk II 24%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Ural II v Chelyabinsk IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ural II win49%

Draw27%

Chelyabinsk II win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 08:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ural II

Chelyabinsk II

6Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Second League - Group 4

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Ural II	22	−10	22
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	−17	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ural ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Ural II a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ural II v Chelyabinsk II~~1.55 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 22 v 17~~9 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ural II win

Published at 50%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ural II win	49%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Chelyabinsk II win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Ural II or draw	76%	–	–
Ural II clean sheet	37%	–	–
Chelyabinsk II clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.7 7.1 4.0 1 11.2 12.6 6.0 2.1 2 9.2 9.1 4.6 3 4.8 4.8 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ural II down, Chelyabinsk II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 976 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 181 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ural II at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Chelyabinsk II away: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Ural II, 1.02 for Chelyabinsk II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~CHE 3–2 URA · URA 2–2 CHE · CHE 1–1 URA · CHE 0–0 URA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept

URAL II

DLLLDL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

CHELYABINSK II

LLWLLD1–2 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	+41	56
2	KDV	22	+20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	+18	43
4	Akron II	22	+12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	−1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	−19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	−4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	−2	23
9	Ural II	22	−10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	−10	20
11	Nosta	22	−28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	−17	17