Rubin Kazan 2 v Orenburg II prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 15:31

Rubin Kazan 2 1–2 Orenburg II RUBIN KAZAN 2 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rubin Kazan 2 win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.806

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rubin Kazan 2 win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rubin Kazan 2 was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
1′KICK-OFF Rubin Kazan 2 v Orenburg II
7′A goal for Rubin Kazan 2 on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 72–16–11
7′We published Rubin Kazan 2 at 46%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–16–11
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Rubin Kazan 2 1–0 Orenburg II
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Rubin Kazan 2 win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
9′A. R. Gainulin scores for Rubin Kazan 2 on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–11
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
39′We published Rubin Kazan 2 at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Rubin Kazan 2 win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Rubin Kazan 2 1–0 Orenburg II
46′SECOND HALF Rubin Kazan 2 1–0 Orenburg II
51′Orenburg II score on 51′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 35–42–23
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Rubin Kazan 2 1–1 Orenburg II
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Rubin Kazan 2 win: 46% at kick-off, 35% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Rubin Kazan 2 win 77%)
52′We said Rubin Kazan 2 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–43–23
62′We said Rubin Kazan 2 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–20
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Rubin Kazan 2 win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
70′We said Rubin Kazan 2 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
76′We said Rubin Kazan 2 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
79′Orenburg II find the net on 79′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–14–84
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Rubin Kazan 2 win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Rubin Kazan 2 1–2 Orenburg II
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Rubin Kazan 2 win: 46% at kick-off, 1% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Orenburg II win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 73%)
80′We said Rubin Kazan 2 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–13–86
81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 1–12–87
FTFULL TIME Rubin Kazan 2 1–2 Orenburg II
FTRubin Kazan 2 1–2 Orenburg II · Rubin Kazan 2 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rubin Kazan 2 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rubin Kazan 2 46%, draw 26%, Orenburg II 28%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Rubin Kazan 2 v Orenburg IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Rubin Kazan 2 win46%

Draw26%

Orenburg II win28%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rubin Kazan 2

Orenburg II

8Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Orenburg II	22	−4	26
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	−10	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rubin kazan 2 winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Rubin Kazan 2 a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rubin Kazan 2 v Orenburg II~~1.60 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 26~~10 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rubin Kazan 2 win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Orenburg II win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Rubin Kazan 2 or draw	72%	–	–
Rubin Kazan 2 clean sheet	31%	–	–
Orenburg II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.2 6.8 4.4 1 9.4 12.1 6.7 2.7 2 8.0 9.1 5.3 2.1 3 4.3 4.9 2.8 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rubin Kazan 2 down, Orenburg II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 973 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.4% of games this season, across 178 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rubin Kazan 2 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Orenburg II away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Rubin Kazan 2, 1.18 for Orenburg II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ORE 3–3 RUB · ORE 0–0 RUB · RUB 3–0 ORE · RUB 1–1 ORE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept

RUBIN KAZAN 2

LWDWWL0–1 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

ORENBURG II

WDDLLD3–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	+41	56
2	KDV	22	+20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	+18	43
4	Akron II	22	+12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	−1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	−19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	−4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	−2	23
9	Ural II	22	−10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	−10	20
11	Nosta	22	−28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	−17	17