Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod v Dinamo Barnaul prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Pobeda Nizhniy NovgorodDrawDinamo Barnaul

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod 63%, draw 19%, Dinamo Barnaul 19%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod v Dinamo BarnaulBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod win63%

Draw19%

Dinamo Barnaul win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod

Dinamo Barnaul

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	+18	43
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	−19	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pobeda nizhniy novgorod winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

63% The market30%

Us63%

~~Market~~30%

We make Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 33 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod v Dinamo Barnaul~~2.55 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 43 v 26~~3 v 6

~~The market · Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod win~~30% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod win	63%	30%	+33
Draw	19%	24%	−5
Dinamo Barnaul win	19%	46%	−27
Over 2.5 goals	74%	66%	+8
Both teams to score	68%	68%	0
Over 1.5 goals	90%	83%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	54%	46%	+8
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod or draw	81%	54%	+27
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod clean sheet	27%	–	–
Dinamo Barnaul clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.7 2.4 1 4.9 7.4 4.7 2.1 2 6.7 8.7 5.8 2.6 3 5.6 7.3 4.8 2.2 4 3.6 4.7 3.1 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod down, Dinamo Barnaul across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 976 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 181 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Barnaul away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.55 goals for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod, 1.35 for Dinamo Barnaul. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DIN 2–2 POB · POB 2–3 DIN · DIN 0–2 POB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept

POBEDA NIZHNIY NOVGOROD

LLDLLL0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 2–3

DINAMO BARNAUL

LWDLWW1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	+41	56
2	KDV	22	+20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	+18	43
4	Akron II	22	+12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	−1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	−19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	−4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	−2	23
9	Ural II	22	−10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	−10	20
11	Nosta	22	−28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	−17	17