Orenburg II v Ural II prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Orenburg II 1–1 Ural II ORENBURG II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Orenburg II win~~57%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.970

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.865

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orenburg II win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Orenburg II was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–21
1′KICK-OFF Orenburg II v Ural II
6′Much as we predicted: Orenburg II was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–22
39′38′ and it is 0–1: Ural II have scored. 0–1 · 21–27–52
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Orenburg II 0–1 Ural II
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Orenburg II win: 57% at kick-off, 21% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Ural II win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Orenburg II win 21%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Orenburg II win: 57% at kick-off, 53% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Orenburg II win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Ural II win 22%)
40′38′ and it is 0–1: Ural II have scored. 0–1 · 21–27–53
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Orenburg II win: 57% at kick-off, 21% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Ural II win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Orenburg II win 21%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Orenburg II win: 57% at kick-off, 53% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Orenburg II win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Ural II win 22%)
45′HALF-TIME Orenburg II 0–1 Ural II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Orenburg II win: 57% at kick-off, 21% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Ural II win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Orenburg II win 21%)
46′SECOND HALF Orenburg II 0–1 Ural II
51′⚽ GOAL · 38' Orenburg II 0–1 Ural II · V. Nem
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Orenburg II 1–1 Ural II
FTFULL TIME Orenburg II 1–1 Ural II
FTOrenburg II 1–1 Ural II · Orenburg II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Orenburg II win57%

Draw22%

Ural II win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Orenburg II

Ural II

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Orenburg II	28	−3	34
11	Ural II	28	−13	26

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · orenburg ii winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

57% The market49%

Us57%

~~Market~~49%

We make Orenburg II a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · orenburg ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orenburg II win	57%	49%	+8
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Ural II win	21%	26%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	63%	62%	0
Both teams to score	60%	64%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	41%	43%	−2
Orenburg II or draw	79%	74%	+5
Orenburg II clean sheet	31%	–	–
Ural II clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.8 4.1 2.8 1 7.5 10.0 5.6 2.2 2 8.2 9.5 5.6 2.3 3 5.6 6.5 3.8 4 2.9 3.4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orenburg II down, Ural II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 963 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 2.93 goals a meeting; 7 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orenburg II at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ural II away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Orenburg II, 1.19 for Ural II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.93

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 14

~~Both scored~~9 of 14

~~Last meetings~~URA 1–1 ORE · URA 5–0 ORE · ORE 2–2 URA · URA 0–5 ORE

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4

ORENBURG II

WWDDLL2–0 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–3

URAL II

LWDLLL2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	28	+48	71
2	KDV	28	+17	62
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	28	+17	50
4	Akron II	28	+15	42
5	Orenburg II	28	−3	34
6	Krylya Sovetov II	28	−2	33
7	Rubin Kazan 2	28	−6	33
8	Izhevsk	28	−3	32
9	Dinamo Barnaul	28	−24	31
10	Nosta	28	−24	30
11	Ural II	28	−13	26
12	Chelyabinsk II	28	−22	23