Orenburg II v Nosta prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Orenburg IIDrawNosta

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Orenburg II 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Orenburg II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Orenburg II 59%, draw 23%, Nosta 18%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Orenburg II v NostaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Orenburg II win59%

Draw23%

Nosta win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orenburg II

Nosta

6Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Second League - Group 4

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Orenburg II	22	−4	26
11	Nosta	22	−28	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · orenburg ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

59% The market45%

Us59%

~~Market~~45%

We make Orenburg II a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Orenburg II v Nosta~~1.91 – 0.96

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 26 v 18~~7 v 11

~~The market · Orenburg II win~~45% · ours 59%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Orenburg II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 59% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orenburg II win	59%	45%	+14
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Nosta win	18%	28%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	54%	51%	+3
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	74%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	31%	+1
Orenburg II or draw	82%	72%	+10
Orenburg II clean sheet	39%	–	–
Nosta clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 6.6 4.9 2.7 1 10.3 10.9 4.9 2 10.3 9.6 4.6 3 6.5 6.1 2.9 4 3.2 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orenburg II down, Nosta across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 976 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 181 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orenburg II at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nosta away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Orenburg II, 0.96 for Nosta. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NOS 2–0 ORE · NOS 1–0 ORE · ORE 3–0 NOS · ORE 2–0 NOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept

ORENBURG II

DDLLDW1–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–1

NOSTA

LWWWWD0–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	+41	56
2	KDV	22	+20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	+18	43
4	Akron II	22	+12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	−1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	−19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	−4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	−2	23
9	Ural II	22	−10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	−10	20
11	Nosta	22	−28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	−17	17