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Model 1.1

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Nosta v Rubin Kazan 2

Nosta
2–1Full time
Rubin Kazan 2

Second League - Group 4 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34
Nosta 2–1 Rubin Kazan 2 RUBIN KAZAN 2 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Rubin Kazan 2 win43%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.752
The market’s Brier score0.573

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rubin Kazan 2 win at 43%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Nosta v Rubin Kazan 2
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Rubin Kazan 2 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 30–26–44
  4. 3′Little has changed for our model: Rubin Kazan 2 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 30–26–43
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Nosta 0–0 Rubin Kazan 2
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Nosta 0–0 Rubin Kazan 2
  7. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Nosta 0–1 Rubin Kazan 2
  8. 57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Nosta 1–1 Rubin Kazan 2
  9. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Nosta 2–1 Rubin Kazan 2
  10. FTFULL TIME Nosta 2–1 Rubin Kazan 2
  11. FTNosta 2–1 Rubin Kazan 2 · Rubin Kazan 2 win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Nosta win30%
Draw27%
Rubin Kazan 2 win43%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nosta

Rubin Kazan 2

7Days since last match7
2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Rubin Kazan 228−633
10Nosta28−2430

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rubin kazan 2 winPublished 11 Oct 12:12
43% The market36%
Us43%
Market36%

We make Rubin Kazan 2 a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:2011 OCT 10:13
Our probability · rubin kazan 2 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Nosta win30%38%−9
Draw27%26%+1
Rubin Kazan 2 win43%36%+7
Over 2.5 goals49%57%−8
Both teams to score53%61%−8
Over 1.5 goals74%78%−4
Over 3.5 goals27%37%−10
Nosta or draw57%64%−7
Nosta clean sheet24%––
Rubin Kazan 2 clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%
0123450 8.3 9.7 7.6 3.8 1 7.7 12.8 8.7 4.3 2 5.0 7.1 5.1 2.5 3 2.8 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Nosta down, Rubin Kazan 2 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting2.56
Over 2.55 of 9
Both scored2 of 9
Last meetingsRUB 2–0 NOS · RUB 3–0 NOS · NOS 2–2 RUB · RUB 3–0 NOS

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4

NOSTA

WLLWWW2–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

RUBIN KAZAN 2

WLWDWW3–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Khimik Dzerzhinsk28+4871
2KDV28+1762
3Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod28+1750
4Akron II28+1542
5Orenburg II28−334
6Krylya Sovetov II28−233
7Rubin Kazan 228−633
8Izhevsk28−332
9Dinamo Barnaul28−2431
10Nosta28−2430
11Ural II28−1326
12Chelyabinsk II28−2223

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.