Nosta v Izhevsk prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NostaDrawIzhevsk

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Izhevsk 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Izhevsk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nosta 32%, draw 27%, Izhevsk 41%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Nosta v IzhevskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Nosta win32%

Draw27%

Izhevsk win41%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 09:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nosta

Izhevsk

11Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 4

Last match: 24 Oct · Second League - Group 4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Izhevsk	22	−2	23
11	Nosta	22	−28	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · izhevsk winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Izhevsk a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nosta v Izhevsk~~1.22 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 23~~11 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nosta win	32%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Izhevsk win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Nosta or draw	59%	–	–
Nosta clean sheet	24%	–	–
Izhevsk clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.1 9.5 7.2 3.5 1 8.0 12.7 8.5 4.1 2 5.3 7.3 5.2 2.5 3 2.2 3.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nosta down, Izhevsk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 975 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nosta at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Izhevsk away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Nosta, 1.44 for Izhevsk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~IZH 1–2 NOS · NOS 1–1 IZH · IZH 2–0 NOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept

NOSTA

LWWWWD0–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

IZHEVSK

WLWWWD2–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	+41	56
2	KDV	22	+20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	+18	43
4	Akron II	22	+12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	−1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	−19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	−4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	−2	23
9	Ural II	22	−10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	−10	20
11	Nosta	22	−28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	−17	17