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Krylya Sovetov II v Akron II

Krylya Sovetov II

2–3Full time

Akron II

Second League - Group 4 · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Krylya Sovetov II 2–3 Akron II KRYLYA SOVETOV II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Krylya Sovetov II win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.672

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.597

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Krylya Sovetov II win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Krylya Sovetov II was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
2′Much as we predicted: Krylya Sovetov II was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
15′Akron II find the net on 14′. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–11–83
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Krylya Sovetov II win: 40% at kick-off, 39% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Krylya Sovetov II win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Akron II win 33%)
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Krylya Sovetov II win: 40% at kick-off, 5% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Akron II win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Krylya Sovetov II win 5%)
20′Akron II ahead on 14′ through A. Morozov. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–11–84
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Krylya Sovetov II win: 40% at kick-off, 5% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Akron II win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Krylya Sovetov II win 5%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Krylya Sovetov II win: 40% at kick-off, 39% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Krylya Sovetov II win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Akron II win 33%)
25′We said Krylya Sovetov II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–85
29′⚽ GOAL · 13' Krylya Sovetov II 0–2 Akron II · N. Plato
29′⚽ GOAL · 14' Krylya Sovetov II 0–2 Akron II · A. Morozov
31′We said Krylya Sovetov II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–87
45′HALF-TIME Krylya Sovetov II 0–2 Akron II
46′SECOND HALF Krylya Sovetov II 0–2 Akron II
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Krylya Sovetov II 1–2 Akron II
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Krylya Sovetov II win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Akron II win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Krylya Sovetov II win 2%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Krylya Sovetov II win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Akron II win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Krylya Sovetov II win 2%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Krylya Sovetov II win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Akron II win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Krylya Sovetov II win 2%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Krylya Sovetov II win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Akron II win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Krylya Sovetov II win 2%)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Krylya Sovetov II win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Akron II win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Krylya Sovetov II win 2%)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Krylya Sovetov II win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Akron II win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Krylya Sovetov II win 2%)
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Krylya Sovetov II 2–2 Akron II
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Krylya Sovetov II 2–3 Akron II
FTFULL TIME Krylya Sovetov II 2–3 Akron II
FTKrylya Sovetov II 2–3 Akron II · Krylya Sovetov II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Krylya Sovetov II win40%

Draw27%

Akron II win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Krylya Sovetov II

Akron II

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Akron II	28	+15	42
6	Krylya Sovetov II	28	−2	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · krylya sovetov ii winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make Krylya Sovetov II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · krylya sovetov ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Krylya Sovetov II win	40%	37%	+2
Draw	27%	25%	+1
Akron II win	33%	37%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	52%	60%	−9
Both teams to score	56%	63%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	76%	81%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	40%	−10
Krylya Sovetov II or draw	67%	63%	+4
Krylya Sovetov II clean sheet	28%	–	–
Akron II clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.4 7.6 5.5 2.4 1 8.5 12.5 7.6 3.4 2 6.7 8.5 5.5 2.4 3 3.3 4.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Krylya Sovetov II down, Akron II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 963 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 3.71 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Krylya Sovetov II at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Akron II away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Krylya Sovetov II, 1.31 for Akron II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.71

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~AKR 2–0 KRY · AKR 4–0 KRY · KRY 2–1 AKR · AKR 3–1 KRY

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4

KRYLYA SOVETOV II

WLLLLW3–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

AKRON II

LDWWLW2–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	28	+48	71
2	KDV	28	+17	62
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	28	+17	50
4	Akron II	28	+15	42
5	Orenburg II	28	−3	34
6	Krylya Sovetov II	28	−2	33
7	Rubin Kazan 2	28	−6	33
8	Izhevsk	28	−3	32
9	Dinamo Barnaul	28	−24	31
10	Nosta	28	−24	30
11	Ural II	28	−13	26
12	Chelyabinsk II	28	−22	23