Khimik Dzerzhinsk v Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Khimik Dzerzhinsk 5–0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod KHIMIK DZERZHINSK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Khimik Dzerzhinsk win~~69%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.144

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.237

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Khimik Dzerzhinsk win at 69%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Khimik Dzerzhinsk 69% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–13
1′KICK-OFF Khimik Dzerzhinsk v Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
2′Little has changed for our model: Khimik Dzerzhinsk 69% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–17–13
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1–0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
45′HALF-TIME Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1–0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
45′⚽ GOAL · 24' Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1–0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · I. Gruznov
46′SECOND HALF Khimik Dzerzhinsk 1–0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Khimik Dzerzhinsk 2–0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Khimik Dzerzhinsk 3–0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Khimik Dzerzhinsk 4–0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Khimik Dzerzhinsk 5–0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
FTFULL TIME Khimik Dzerzhinsk 5–0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
FTKhimik Dzerzhinsk 5–0 Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod · Khimik Dzerzhinsk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Khimik Dzerzhinsk win69%

Draw18%

Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod win13%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	28	+48	71
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	28	+17	50

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khimik dzerzhinsk winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

69% The market60%

Us69%

~~Market~~60%

We make Khimik Dzerzhinsk a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · khimik dzerzhinsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Khimik Dzerzhinsk win	69%	60%	+9
Draw	18%	22%	−4
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod win	13%	18%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	68%	61%	+7
Both teams to score	58%	58%	0
Over 1.5 goals	87%	80%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	47%	41%	+6
Khimik Dzerzhinsk or draw	87%	82%	+5
Khimik Dzerzhinsk clean sheet	37%	–	–
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.2%

0123450 3.7 2.6 1 7.1 7.9 3.8 2 9.2 9.1 4.6 3 7.7 7.6 3.8 4 4.9 4.8 2.4 5 2.5 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Khimik Dzerzhinsk down, Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 963 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.52 goals for Khimik Dzerzhinsk, 1.01 for Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~POB 0–1 KHI · POB 1–1 KHI · KHI 2–0 POB

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4

KHIMIK DZERZHINSK

WWWLWW3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

POBEDA NIZHNIY NOVGOROD

WWLLDL3–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	28	+48	71
2	KDV	28	+17	62
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	28	+17	50
4	Akron II	28	+15	42
5	Orenburg II	28	−3	34
6	Krylya Sovetov II	28	−2	33
7	Rubin Kazan 2	28	−6	33
8	Izhevsk	28	−3	32
9	Dinamo Barnaul	28	−24	31
10	Nosta	28	−24	30
11	Ural II	28	−13	26
12	Chelyabinsk II	28	−22	23