Khimik Dzerzhinsk v Krylya Sovetov II prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Khimik DzerzhinskDrawKrylya Sovetov II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Khimik Dzerzhinsk 74%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Khimik Dzerzhinsk are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Khimik Dzerzhinsk 74%, draw 18%, Krylya Sovetov II 9%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Khimik Dzerzhinsk v Krylya Sovetov IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Khimik Dzerzhinsk win74%

Draw18%

Krylya Sovetov II win9%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Krylya Sovetov II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khimik dzerzhinsk winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

74% The market–

Us74%

We make Khimik Dzerzhinsk a 74% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Khimik Dzerzhinsk v Krylya Sovetov II~~2.31 – 0.65

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 56 v 27~~1 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Khimik Dzerzhinsk win	74%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Krylya Sovetov II win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Khimik Dzerzhinsk or draw	91%	–	–
Khimik Dzerzhinsk clean sheet	52%	–	–
Krylya Sovetov II clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.6%

0123450 6.0 3.0 1 11.6 8.2 2.6 2 13.6 8.7 2.9 3 10.4 6.7 2.2 4 6.1 3.9 5 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Khimik Dzerzhinsk down, Krylya Sovetov II across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 976 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 181 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Khimik Dzerzhinsk at home: 3.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Krylya Sovetov II away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.31 goals for Khimik Dzerzhinsk, 0.65 for Krylya Sovetov II. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~KRY 0–1 KHI · KRY 0–2 KHI · KHI 2–1 KRY · KHI 1–0 KRY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept

KHIMIK DZERZHINSK

WLWWWL1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 3–4

KRYLYA SOVETOV II

LLLWLL0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	+41	56
2	KDV	22	+20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	+18	43
4	Akron II	22	+12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	−1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	−19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	−4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	−2	23
9	Ural II	22	−10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	−10	20
11	Nosta	22	−28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	−17	17