KDV v Dinamo Barnaul prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

KDV 0–1 Dinamo Barnaul KDV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said KDV win~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.241

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said KDV win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: KDV was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–19–14
2′Much as we predicted: KDV was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–19–14
40′Dinamo Barnaul ahead on 33′ through I. Zhitnikov. 0–1. 0–1 · 26–29–45
45′Dinamo Barnaul ahead on 33′ through I. Zhitnikov. 0–1. 0–1 · 23–30–47
45′We said KDV at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–30–47
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Dinamo Barnaul win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was KDV win 26%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' KDV win: 67% at kick-off, 59% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' KDV win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Dinamo Barnaul win 15%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' KDV win: 67% at kick-off, 26% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' KDV win: 67% at kick-off, 23% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Dinamo Barnaul win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was KDV win 23%)
45′HALF-TIME KDV 0–1 Dinamo Barnaul
46′SECOND HALF KDV 0–1 Dinamo Barnaul
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' KDV win: 67% at kick-off, 23% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Dinamo Barnaul win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was KDV win 23%)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' KDV win: 67% at kick-off, 23% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Dinamo Barnaul win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was KDV win 23%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' KDV win: 67% at kick-off, 23% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Dinamo Barnaul win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was KDV win 23%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' KDV win: 67% at kick-off, 23% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Dinamo Barnaul win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was KDV win 23%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' KDV win: 67% at kick-off, 23% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Dinamo Barnaul win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was KDV win 23%)
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' KDV win: 67% at kick-off, 23% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Dinamo Barnaul win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was KDV win 23%)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' KDV win: 67% at kick-off, 23% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Dinamo Barnaul win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was KDV win 23%)
FTFULL TIME KDV 0–1 Dinamo Barnaul
FTKDV 0–1 Dinamo Barnaul · KDV win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

KDV win67%

Draw20%

Dinamo Barnaul win13%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

KDV

Dinamo Barnaul

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	KDV	28	+17	62
9	Dinamo Barnaul	28	−24	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kdv winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

67% The market–

Us67%

We make KDV a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KDV win	67%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Dinamo Barnaul win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
KDV or draw	87%	–	–
KDV clean sheet	41%	–	–
Dinamo Barnaul clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.8%

0123450 5.1 3.4 1 9.2 9.1 3.9 2 10.8 9.5 4.3 3 8.1 7.1 3.2 4 4.6 4.0 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+KDV down, Dinamo Barnaul across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 963 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KDV at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Barnaul away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for KDV, 0.90 for Dinamo Barnaul. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~DIN 1–2 KDV · DIN 0–2 KDV · KDV 3–1 DIN · KDV 2–0 DIN

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4

KDV

LLWWWL0–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

DINAMO BARNAUL

LDLWDL0–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	28	+48	71
2	KDV	28	+17	62
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	28	+17	50
4	Akron II	28	+15	42
5	Orenburg II	28	−3	34
6	Krylya Sovetov II	28	−2	33
7	Rubin Kazan 2	28	−6	33
8	Izhevsk	28	−3	32
9	Dinamo Barnaul	28	−24	31
10	Nosta	28	−24	30
11	Ural II	28	−13	26
12	Chelyabinsk II	28	−22	23