KDV v Akron II prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KDVDrawAkron II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 09:00

Before kick-off · Match result · KDV 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KDV are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KDV 53%, draw 23%, Akron II 24%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on KDV v Akron IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

KDV win53%

Draw23%

Akron II win24%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 09:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KDV

Akron II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	KDV	22	+20	53
4	Akron II	22	+12	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kdv winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make KDV a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KDV v Akron II~~1.94 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 53 v 32~~2 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KDV win	53%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Akron II win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
KDV or draw	76%	–	–
KDV clean sheet	30%	–	–
Akron II clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.1 4.7 3.2 1 7.7 10.5 6.0 2.5 2 8.0 9.4 5.7 2.4 3 5.2 6.1 3.7 4 2.6 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KDV down, Akron II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 976 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.0% of games this season, across 181 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KDV at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Akron II away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for KDV, 1.23 for Akron II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~AKR 0–1 KDV · KDV 1–0 AKR · AKR 1–2 KDV · KDV 0–2 AKR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept

KDV

WWWLLW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–2

AKRON II

WWLWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 4–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	+41	56
2	KDV	22	+20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	+18	43
4	Akron II	22	+12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	−1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	−19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	−4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	−2	23
9	Ural II	22	−10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	−10	20
11	Nosta	22	−28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	−17	17