Izhevsk v Rubin Kazan 2 prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Izhevsk 1–1 Rubin Kazan 2 IZHEVSK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Izhevsk win~~45%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.826

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.817

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Izhevsk win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Izhevsk was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–27–28
1′KICK-OFF Izhevsk v Rubin Kazan 2
13′Izhevsk find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–11
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Izhevsk 1–0 Rubin Kazan 2
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Izhevsk win: 45% at kick-off, 72% now
14′We published Izhevsk at 45%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–17–11
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–9
42′We published Izhevsk at 45%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Izhevsk win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
45′HALF-TIME Izhevsk 1–0 Rubin Kazan 2
46′SECOND HALF Izhevsk 1–0 Rubin Kazan 2
53′A goal for Rubin Kazan 2 on 53′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–44–23
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Izhevsk 1–1 Rubin Kazan 2
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Izhevsk win: 45% at kick-off, 33% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Izhevsk win 77%)
54′We said Izhevsk at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–44–23
61′We said Izhevsk at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–50–21
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Izhevsk win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
69′We said Izhevsk at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–17
75′We said Izhevsk at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Izhevsk win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
80′We said Izhevsk at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
84′We said Izhevsk at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Izhevsk win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
91′We said Izhevsk at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Izhevsk 1–1 Rubin Kazan 2
FTIzhevsk 1–1 Rubin Kazan 2 · Izhevsk win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Izhevsk are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Izhevsk 45%, draw 26%, Rubin Kazan 2 29%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Izhevsk v Rubin Kazan 2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Izhevsk win45%

Draw26%

Rubin Kazan 2 win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Izhevsk

Rubin Kazan 2

5Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · Second League - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Izhevsk	22	−2	23
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	−10	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · izhevsk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

45% The market43%

Us45%

~~Market~~43%

We make Izhevsk a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Izhevsk v Rubin Kazan 2~~1.55 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 20~~8 v 10

~~The market · Izhevsk win~~43% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Izhevsk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Izhevsk win	45%	43%	+2
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Rubin Kazan 2 win	29%	31%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	54%	57%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	75%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Izhevsk or draw	71%	69%	+2
Izhevsk clean sheet	31%	–	–
Rubin Kazan 2 clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.6 7.2 4.6 1 9.5 12.4 6.9 2.7 2 7.8 8.9 5.2 2.1 3 4.1 4.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Izhevsk down, Rubin Kazan 2 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 975 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Izhevsk at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Rubin Kazan 2 away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Izhevsk, 1.18 for Rubin Kazan 2. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~RUB 2–1 IZH · IZH 2–2 RUB · RUB 2–2 IZH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 13 Sept

IZHEVSK

WWLWWW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

RUBIN KAZAN 2

WDWWLL2–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	+41	56
2	KDV	22	+20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	+18	43
4	Akron II	22	+12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	−1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	−19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	−4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	−2	23
9	Ural II	22	−10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	−10	20
11	Nosta	22	−28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	−17	17