Izhevsk v Chelyabinsk II prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Izhevsk 1–0 Chelyabinsk II IZHEVSK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Izhevsk win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.285

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Izhevsk win at 57%.
1′KICK-OFF Izhevsk v Chelyabinsk II
2′Much as we predicted: Izhevsk was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–24–19
3′Much as we predicted: Izhevsk was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–24–19
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Izhevsk 1–0 Chelyabinsk II
26′Izhevsk find the net on 24′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–5
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 81% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 53% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 81% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 53% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 81% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 53% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 53% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 81% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 53% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 81% now
30′⚽ GOAL · 24' Izhevsk 1–0 Chelyabinsk II
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 81% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 53% now
32′Izhevsk find the net on 24′. 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–4
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 81% now
41′We published Izhevsk at 57%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
45′We published Izhevsk at 57%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–3
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–3
45′HALF-TIME Izhevsk 1–0 Chelyabinsk II
46′SECOND HALF Izhevsk 1–0 Chelyabinsk II
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Izhevsk win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
FTFULL TIME Izhevsk 1–0 Chelyabinsk II
FTIzhevsk 1–0 Chelyabinsk II · Izhevsk win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Izhevsk win57%

Draw25%

Chelyabinsk II win18%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Izhevsk

Chelyabinsk II

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Izhevsk	28	−3	32
12	Chelyabinsk II	28	−22	23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · izhevsk winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Izhevsk a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Izhevsk win	57%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Chelyabinsk II win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Izhevsk or draw	82%	–	–
Izhevsk clean sheet	42%	–	–
Chelyabinsk II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 8.5 5.9 2.9 1 12.1 11.7 4.8 2 10.9 9.3 4.1 3 6.3 5.4 2.4 4 2.8 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Izhevsk down, Chelyabinsk II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 963 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.9% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Izhevsk at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Chelyabinsk II away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Izhevsk, 0.87 for Chelyabinsk II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–2 IZH · IZH 1–0 CHE · CHE 0–2 IZH

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4

IZHEVSK

LLWWLW1–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

CHELYABINSK II

LWLLWL0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	28	+48	71
2	KDV	28	+17	62
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	28	+17	50
4	Akron II	28	+15	42
5	Orenburg II	28	−3	34
6	Krylya Sovetov II	28	−2	33
7	Rubin Kazan 2	28	−6	33
8	Izhevsk	28	−3	32
9	Dinamo Barnaul	28	−24	31
10	Nosta	28	−24	30
11	Ural II	28	−13	26
12	Chelyabinsk II	28	−22	23