Dinamo Barnaul v Krylya Sovetov II prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 10:33

Dinamo Barnaul 2–0 Krylya Sovetov II DINAMO BARNAUL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Barnaul win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.556

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Barnaul win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Barnaul was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Barnaul v Krylya Sovetov II
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Dinamo Barnaul win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Barnaul 0–0 Krylya Sovetov II
46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Barnaul 0–0 Krylya Sovetov II
50′A goal for Dinamo Barnaul on 49′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–7
50′We published Dinamo Barnaul at 39%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–7
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Dinamo Barnaul 1–0 Krylya Sovetov II
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Dinamo Barnaul win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Dinamo Barnaul win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 20%)
55′We published Dinamo Barnaul at 39%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Dinamo Barnaul win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
66′Dinamo Barnaul score on 65′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
66′We published Dinamo Barnaul at 39%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
66′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 97–3–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Dinamo Barnaul 2–0 Krylya Sovetov II
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Dinamo Barnaul win: 39% at kick-off, 97% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Dinamo Barnaul win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
83′We published Dinamo Barnaul at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Barnaul 2–0 Krylya Sovetov II
FTDinamo Barnaul 2–0 Krylya Sovetov II · Dinamo Barnaul win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Barnaul are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Barnaul 39%, draw 27%, Krylya Sovetov II 34%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Barnaul v Krylya Sovetov IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Barnaul win39%

Draw27%

Krylya Sovetov II win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 08:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Barnaul

Krylya Sovetov II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	−1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	−19	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dinamo barnaul winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Dinamo Barnaul a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Barnaul v Krylya Sovetov II~~1.39 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 26 v 27~~6 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Barnaul win	39%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Krylya Sovetov II win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Dinamo Barnaul or draw	66%	–	–
Dinamo Barnaul clean sheet	29%	–	–
Krylya Sovetov II clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.9 8.3 5.7 2.4 1 9.1 12.7 7.6 3.3 2 6.8 8.4 5.3 2.3 3 3.2 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Barnaul down, Krylya Sovetov II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 969 Second League - Group 4 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 4 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 174 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.14 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Barnaul at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Krylya Sovetov II away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Dinamo Barnaul, 1.27 for Krylya Sovetov II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~KRY 1–2 DIN · DIN 1–1 KRY · KRY 4–1 DIN · DIN 1–0 KRY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept

DINAMO BARNAUL

DLWDLW1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–0

KRYLYA SOVETOV II

LLLLWL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	22	+41	56
2	KDV	22	+20	53
3	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	22	+18	43
4	Akron II	22	+12	32
5	Krylya Sovetov II	22	−1	27
6	Dinamo Barnaul	22	−19	26
7	Orenburg II	22	−4	26
8	Izhevsk	22	−2	23
9	Ural II	22	−10	22
10	Rubin Kazan 2	22	−10	20
11	Nosta	22	−28	18
12	Chelyabinsk II	22	−17	17