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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Second League - Group 4 › Chelyabinsk II v Nosta

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Chelyabinsk II v Nosta

Chelyabinsk II
0–0Full time
Nosta

Second League - Group 4 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51
Chelyabinsk II 0–0 Nosta CHELYABINSK II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Chelyabinsk II win42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.762

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Chelyabinsk II win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Chelyabinsk II 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–29–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Chelyabinsk II v Nosta
  4. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Chelyabinsk II win 34%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Chelyabinsk II 0–0 Nosta
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Chelyabinsk II 0–0 Nosta
  7. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Chelyabinsk II win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
  8. 52′We said Chelyabinsk II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–47–23
  9. 54′We said Chelyabinsk II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–48–22
  10. 64′We said Chelyabinsk II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–57–19
  11. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Chelyabinsk II win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
  12. 72′We said Chelyabinsk II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–66–15
  13. 78′We said Chelyabinsk II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
  14. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Chelyabinsk II win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  15. 83′We said Chelyabinsk II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
  16. 90′We said Chelyabinsk II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
  17. FTFULL TIME Chelyabinsk II 0–0 Nosta
  18. FTChelyabinsk II 0–0 Nosta · Chelyabinsk II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chelyabinsk II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chelyabinsk II 42%, draw 29%, Nosta 29%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Chelyabinsk II v NostaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chelyabinsk II win42%
Draw29%
Nosta win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chelyabinsk II

Nosta

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 4

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Nosta22−2818
12Chelyabinsk II22−1717

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chelyabinsk ii winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
42% The market–
Us42%

We make Chelyabinsk II a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Chelyabinsk II v Nosta1.30 – 1.04
Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 6 SeptW2 D0 L4 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 17 v 1812 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Chelyabinsk II win42%––
Draw29%––
Nosta win29%––
Over 2.5 goals41%––
Both teams to score47%––
Over 1.5 goals68%––
Over 3.5 goals21%––
Chelyabinsk II or draw71%––
Chelyabinsk II clean sheet36%––
Nosta clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%
0123450 10.7 9.4 5.3 1 11.8 13.4 6.6 2.3 2 8.1 8.2 4.3 3 3.6 3.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Chelyabinsk II down, Nosta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting2.20
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsNOS 3–0 CHE · NOS 2–1 CHE · CHE 1–1 NOS · NOS 0–1 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept

CHELYABINSK II

WLLWLL1–0 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

NOSTA

LLWWWW0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Khimik Dzerzhinsk22+4156
2KDV22+2053
3Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod22+1843
4Akron II22+1232
5Krylya Sovetov II22−127
6Dinamo Barnaul22−1926
7Orenburg II22−426
8Izhevsk22−223
9Ural II22−1022
10Rubin Kazan 222−1020
11Nosta22−2818
12Chelyabinsk II22−1717

The competition's standings before kick-off.