Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Second League - Group 4 › Akron II v Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Back
Russia flag

Akron II v Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Akron II
4–3Full time
Khimik Dzerzhinsk

Second League - Group 4 · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36
Akron II 4–3 Khimik Dzerzhinsk KHIMIK DZERZHINSK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Khimik Dzerzhinsk win57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.994

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Khimik Dzerzhinsk win at 57%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Khimik Dzerzhinsk 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 21–22–57
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Akron II v Khimik Dzerzhinsk
  4. 4′Akron II find the net on 4′. 1–0. 1–0 · 44–22–34
  5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Akron II 1–0 Khimik Dzerzhinsk
  6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Khimik Dzerzhinsk win: 57% at kick-off, 34% now
  7. 4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Akron II win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Khimik Dzerzhinsk win 34%)
  8. 5′Akron II ahead on 7′ through N. Makeev. 1–0. 1–0 · 44–22–34
  9. 6′We said Khimik Dzerzhinsk at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 44–23–34
  10. 10′A goal for Akron II on 10′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 68–17–15
  11. 10′We said Khimik Dzerzhinsk at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 2–0 · 68–17–15
  12. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Akron II 2–0 Khimik Dzerzhinsk
  13. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Khimik Dzerzhinsk win: 57% at kick-off, 15% now
  14. 13′Akron II score on 12′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 85–9–6
  15. 13′We said Khimik Dzerzhinsk at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 3–0 · 85–9–6
  16. 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Akron II 3–0 Khimik Dzerzhinsk
  17. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Khimik Dzerzhinsk win: 57% at kick-off, 6% now
  18. 21′We said Khimik Dzerzhinsk at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 3–0 · 88–8–4
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Akron II 3–0 Khimik Dzerzhinsk
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Akron II 3–0 Khimik Dzerzhinsk
  21. 49′Khimik Dzerzhinsk find the net on 49′. 3–1. 3–1 · 83–12–5
  22. 49′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 83–12–5
  23. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Akron II 3–1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk
  24. 56′A goal for Akron II on 55′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 97–3–1
  25. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Akron II 4–1 Khimik Dzerzhinsk
  26. 57′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 97–3–1
  27. 73′Khimik Dzerzhinsk score on 73′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 95–4–1
  28. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Akron II 4–2 Khimik Dzerzhinsk
  29. 74′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 95–4–1
  30. 80′Khimik Dzerzhinsk find the net on 80′. 4–3. 4–3 · 82–16–2
  31. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Akron II 4–3 Khimik Dzerzhinsk
  32. 81′7 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 83–15–2
  33. FTFULL TIME Akron II 4–3 Khimik Dzerzhinsk
  34. FTAkron II 4–3 Khimik Dzerzhinsk · Khimik Dzerzhinsk win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Khimik Dzerzhinsk are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Akron II 21%, draw 22%, Khimik Dzerzhinsk 57%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Akron II v Khimik DzerzhinskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Akron II win21%
Draw22%
Khimik Dzerzhinsk win57%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 4 · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Akron II

Khimik Dzerzhinsk

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 4

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 4

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Khimik Dzerzhinsk22+4156
4Akron II22+1232

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khimik dzerzhinsk winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
57% The market–
Us57%

We make Khimik Dzerzhinsk a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–2.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Akron II v Khimik Dzerzhinsk1.20 – 2.09
Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 6 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 32 v 564 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Akron II win21%––
Draw22%––
Khimik Dzerzhinsk win57%––
Over 2.5 goals63%––
Both teams to score61%––
Over 1.5 goals84%––
Over 3.5 goals42%––
Akron II or draw43%––
Akron II clean sheet13%––
Khimik Dzerzhinsk clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%
0123450 4.5 7.4 8.1 5.6 3.0 1 4.1 9.8 9.5 6.5 3.5 2 2.8 5.5 5.6 3.9 2.1 3 2.3 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Akron II down, Khimik Dzerzhinsk across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting3.40
Over 2.54 of 5
Both scored3 of 5
Last meetingsKHI 1–2 AKR · KHI 2–0 AKR · AKR 1–5 KHI · AKR 0–3 KHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 4 this season · since 6 Sept

AKRON II

DWWLWW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–2

KHIMIK DZERZHINSK

WWLWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 5–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Khimik Dzerzhinsk22+4156
2KDV22+2053
3Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod22+1843
4Akron II22+1232
5Krylya Sovetov II22−127
6Dinamo Barnaul22−1926
7Orenburg II22−426
8Izhevsk22−223
9Ural II22−1022
10Rubin Kazan 222−1020
11Nosta22−2818
12Chelyabinsk II22−1717

The competition's standings before kick-off.