Home › Football › Second League - Group 3 › Zenit Penza v Rodina Moskva III

Zenit Penza v Rodina Moskva III

Zenit Penza

0–1Full time

Rodina Moskva III

Second League - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Zenit Penza 0–1 Rodina Moskva III RODINA MOSKVA III WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rodina Moskva III win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.362

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rodina Moskva III win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rodina Moskva III 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 26–23–50
1′KICK-OFF Zenit Penza v Rodina Moskva III
45′HALF-TIME Zenit Penza 0–0 Rodina Moskva III
46′SECOND HALF Zenit Penza 0–0 Rodina Moskva III
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Rodina Moskva III win: 51% at kick-off, 40% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Zenit Penza 0–1 Rodina Moskva III
67′58′ and it is 0–1: Rodina Moskva III have scored. 0–1 · 3–16–81
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Rodina Moskva III win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
87′We said Rodina Moskva III at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–1 · 0–4–96
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Rodina Moskva III win: 51% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Zenit Penza 0–1 Rodina Moskva III
FTZenit Penza 0–1 Rodina Moskva III · Rodina Moskva III win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zenit Penza win27%

Draw22%

Rodina Moskva III win51%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rodina moskva iii winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Rodina Moskva III a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zenit Penza win	27%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Rodina Moskva III win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Zenit Penza or draw	49%	–	–
Zenit Penza clean sheet	17%	–	–
Rodina Moskva III clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.2 9.1 7.6 4.6 2.2 1 6.6 9.8 9.3 5.6 2.6 2 3.7 6.5 5.8 3.5 3 2.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zenit Penza down, Rodina Moskva III across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,540 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zenit Penza at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rodina Moskva III away: 2.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Zenit Penza, 1.82 for Rodina Moskva III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ROD 9–1 ZEN · ZEN 2–0 ROD · ROD 2–1 ZEN

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3

ZENIT PENZA

WLDDLL2–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2

RODINA MOSKVA III

WLWWWW2–0 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 5–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Spartak Tambov	26	+33	63
2	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	26	+33	62
3	Ryazan	26	+32	53
4	Salyut-Belgorod	26	+21	49
5	Metallurg Lipetsk	26	+19	48
6	Saturn Ramenskoye	26	+13	48
7	Shumbrat	26	+11	44
8	Rodina Moskva III	26	+9	40
9	Avangard Kursk	26	−7	32
10	Orel	26	−15	29
11	Strogino	26	−12	28
12	Zenit Penza	26	−23	25
13	SKA Khabarovsk II	26	−15	24
14	Arsenal Tula II	26	−27	16
15	Rotor-2	26	−25	15
16	Kvant	26	−47	8