Volna Nizhegorodskaya v FK Spartak Tambov prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 0–0 FK Spartak Tambov VOLNA NIZHEGORODSKAYA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Volna Nizhegorodskaya win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.763

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.744

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Volna Nizhegorodskaya win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Volna Nizhegorodskaya 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–29–32
1′KICK-OFF Volna Nizhegorodskaya v FK Spartak Tambov
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Volna Nizhegorodskaya win 34%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Volna Nizhegorodskaya win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
45′HALF-TIME Volna Nizhegorodskaya 0–0 FK Spartak Tambov
46′SECOND HALF Volna Nizhegorodskaya 0–0 FK Spartak Tambov
49′We said Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–48–24
59′We said Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Volna Nizhegorodskaya win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
68′We said Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–16
76′We said Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–12
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Volna Nizhegorodskaya win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
82′We said Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
89′We said Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–3
FTFULL TIME Volna Nizhegorodskaya 0–0 FK Spartak Tambov
FTVolna Nizhegorodskaya 0–0 FK Spartak Tambov · Volna Nizhegorodskaya win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Volna Nizhegorodskaya are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Volna Nizhegorodskaya 40%, draw 29%, FK Spartak Tambov 32%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Volna Nizhegorodskaya v FK Spartak TambovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Volna Nizhegorodskaya win40%

Draw29%

FK Spartak Tambov win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

FK Spartak Tambov

4Days since last match8

Last match: 14 Oct · the Russian Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · volna nizhegorodskaya winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Volna Nizhegorodskaya a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Volna Nizhegorodskaya v FK Spartak Tambov~~1.10 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 56 v 53~~1 v 2

~~The market · Volna Nizhegorodskaya win~~38% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Volna Nizhegorodskaya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Volna Nizhegorodskaya win	40%	38%	+2
Draw	29%	30%	−1
FK Spartak Tambov win	32%	32%	0
Over 2.5 goals	34%	44%	−10
Both teams to score	40%	50%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	60%	69%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	16%	24%	−8
Volna Nizhegorodskaya or draw	68%	68%	0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya clean sheet	39%	–	–
FK Spartak Tambov clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 12.5 12.9 5.8 1 14.9 12.4 6.2 2.0 2 7.8 7.2 3.4 3 2.9 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Volna Nizhegorodskaya down, FK Spartak Tambov across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,554 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games this season, across 222 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Volna Nizhegorodskaya at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). FK Spartak Tambov away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.10 goals for Volna Nizhegorodskaya, 0.95 for FK Spartak Tambov. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FKS 0–2 VOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

VOLNA NIZHEGORODSKAYA

WWWLLD2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0

FK SPARTAK TAMBOV

WWDWWD1–0 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	−16	23
13	Orel	22	−13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6