Strogino v Salyut-Belgorod prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Strogino 1–6 Salyut-Belgorod SALYUT-BELGOROD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Salyut-Belgorod win~~64%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.200

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.254

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Salyut-Belgorod win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Salyut-Belgorod 64% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 16–20–63
2′Little has changed for our model: Salyut-Belgorod 64% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 16–21–63
10′D. Komarov scores for Strogino on 5′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 17–22–61
15′D. Komarov scores for Strogino on 5′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 17–23–60
40′We said Salyut-Belgorod at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 51%. 1–1 · 17–32–51
45′44′ and it is 1–2: Salyut-Belgorod have scored. 1–2 · 3–13–83
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Salyut-Belgorod win: 64% at kick-off, 51% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Salyut-Belgorod win: 64% at kick-off, 55% now
45′HALF-TIME Strogino 1–2 Salyut-Belgorod
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Salyut-Belgorod win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
46′SECOND HALF Strogino 1–2 Salyut-Belgorod
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Salyut-Belgorod win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Salyut-Belgorod win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Salyut-Belgorod win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Salyut-Belgorod win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Salyut-Belgorod win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Salyut-Belgorod win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Strogino 1–3 Salyut-Belgorod
68′🟥 RED CARD · 68' Strogino
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Strogino 1–4 Salyut-Belgorod
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Strogino 1–5 Salyut-Belgorod
FTFULL TIME Strogino 1–6 Salyut-Belgorod
FTStrogino 1–6 Salyut-Belgorod · Salyut-Belgorod win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Strogino win17%

Draw19%

Salyut-Belgorod win64%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Strogino

Salyut-Belgorod

8Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Salyut-Belgorod	26	+21	49
11	Strogino	26	−12	28

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · salyut-belgorod winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

64% The market59%

Us64%

~~Market~~59%

We make Salyut-Belgorod a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · salyut-belgorod win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Strogino win	17%	18%	−1
Draw	19%	23%	−4
Salyut-Belgorod win	64%	59%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	54%	+4
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	36%	33%	+3
Strogino or draw	36%	41%	−5
Strogino clean sheet	13%	–	–
Salyut-Belgorod clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.6 10.7 10.4 7.2 3.8 1 5.2 9.0 9.6 6.6 3.5 2 2.3 4.5 4.6 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Strogino down, Salyut-Belgorod across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,545 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.2% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Strogino at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Salyut-Belgorod away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Strogino, 2.08 for Salyut-Belgorod. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SAL 1–0 STR · STR 0–2 SAL · SAL 3–1 STR · SAL 2–0 STR

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3

STROGINO

LWWLLL0–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–5 · 0–1

SALYUT-BELGOROD

LLWDWW0–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Spartak Tambov	27	+33	64
2	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	27	+33	63
3	Ryazan	27	+32	54
4	Salyut-Belgorod	26	+21	49
5	Metallurg Lipetsk	26	+19	48
6	Saturn Ramenskoye	26	+13	48
7	Shumbrat	27	+11	45
8	Rodina Moskva III	27	+10	43
9	Avangard Kursk	27	−7	33
10	Orel	26	−15	29
11	Strogino	26	−12	28
12	SKA Khabarovsk II	27	−13	27
13	Zenit Penza	27	−24	25
14	Rotor-2	27	−25	16
15	Arsenal Tula II	26	−27	16
16	Kvant	27	−49	8