Strogino v Rotor-2 prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

StroginoDrawRotor-2

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Strogino 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Strogino are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Strogino 42%, draw 25%, Rotor-2 32%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Strogino v Rotor-2Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Strogino win42%

Draw25%

Rotor-2 win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Strogino

Rotor-2

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · strogino winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market46%

Us42%

~~Market~~46%

We make Strogino a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Strogino v Rotor-2~~1.35 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 14~~10 v 14

~~The market · Strogino win~~46% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Strogino win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Strogino win	42%	46%	−4
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Rotor-2 win	32%	25%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Both teams to score	49%	55%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	73%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	24%	31%	−7
Strogino or draw	68%	75%	−7
Strogino clean sheet	33%	–	–
Rotor-2 clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.9%

0123450 7.9 10.2 5.4 2.1 1 11.9 11.9 7.1 2.7 2 7.6 8.4 4.7 3 3.5 3.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Strogino down, Rotor-2 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 225 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Strogino at home: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rotor-2 away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Strogino, 1.13 for Rotor-2. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ROT 1–2 STR · ROT 3–0 STR · STR 3–2 ROT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 11 Sept

STROGINO

WLLLLW3–0 · 0–1 · 2–5 · 0–1 · 1–6 · 3–1

ROTOR-2

LLDLDW0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	−16	23
13	Orel	22	−13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6