SKA Khabarovsk II v Ryazan prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SKA Khabarovsk IIDrawRyazan

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 04:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ryazan 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ryazan are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SKA Khabarovsk II 19%, draw 21%, Ryazan 60%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on SKA Khabarovsk II v RyazanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

SKA Khabarovsk II win19%

Draw21%

Ryazan win60%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 04:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SKA Khabarovsk II

Ryazan

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ryazan winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

60% The market57%

Us60%

~~Market~~57%

We make Ryazan a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SKA Khabarovsk II v Ryazan~~0.92 – 1.90

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 24 v 40~~11 v 5

~~The market · Ryazan win~~57% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ryazan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SKA Khabarovsk II win	19%	18%	+1
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Ryazan win	60%	57%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
SKA Khabarovsk II or draw	40%	43%	−3
SKA Khabarovsk II clean sheet	16%	–	–
Ryazan clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.9%

0123450 5.7 11.9 10.6 6.8 3.3 1 6.2 9.8 9.5 6.0 2.9 2 2.6 4.8 4.4 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SKA Khabarovsk II down, Ryazan across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 225 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SKA Khabarovsk II at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ryazan away: 2.00 scored, 0.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for SKA Khabarovsk II, 1.90 for Ryazan. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RYA 3–0 SKA · SKA 1–1 RYA · RYA 1–0 SKA · SKA 2–3 RYA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

SKA KHABAROVSK II

LLLLWL1–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 0–2

RYAZAN

DWWWDW2–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	−16	23
13	Orel	22	−13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6