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SKA Khabarovsk II v Kvant

SKA Khabarovsk II

3–1Full time

Kvant

Second League - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 05:30

SKA Khabarovsk II 3–1 Kvant SKA KHABAROVSK II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SKA Khabarovsk II win~~65%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.180

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.214

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SKA Khabarovsk II win at 65%.
1′Much as we predicted: SKA Khabarovsk II was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–18–17
1′KICK-OFF SKA Khabarovsk II v Kvant
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' SKA Khabarovsk II 0–1 Kvant
42′Kvant ahead on 24′ through I. Sokolov. 0–1. 0–1 · 26–28–47
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' SKA Khabarovsk II win: 65% at kick-off, 26% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Kvant win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was SKA Khabarovsk II win 26%)
45′We said SKA Khabarovsk II at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–48
45′HALF-TIME SKA Khabarovsk II 0–1 Kvant
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' SKA Khabarovsk II win: 65% at kick-off, 24% now
46′SECOND HALF SKA Khabarovsk II 0–1 Kvant
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' SKA Khabarovsk II 1–1 Kvant
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' SKA Khabarovsk II 2–1 Kvant
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' SKA Khabarovsk II 3–1 Kvant
FTFULL TIME SKA Khabarovsk II 3–1 Kvant
FTSKA Khabarovsk II 3–1 Kvant · SKA Khabarovsk II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SKA Khabarovsk II win65%

Draw17%

Kvant win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 03:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ska khabarovsk ii winPublished 10 Oct 03:01

65% The market62%

Us65%

~~Market~~62%

We make SKA Khabarovsk II a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SKA Khabarovsk II win	65%	62%	+3
Draw	17%	19%	−2
Kvant win	18%	19%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	71%	67%	+4
Both teams to score	63%	61%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	88%	83%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	51%	46%	+4
SKA Khabarovsk II or draw	82%	81%	+1
SKA Khabarovsk II clean sheet	30%	–	–
Kvant clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.2 3.6 1 6.7 7.0 4.5 2 7.6 9.0 5.4 2.2 3 6.2 7.4 4.4 4 4.0 4.6 2.8 5 2.1 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+SKA Khabarovsk II down, Kvant across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,540 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SKA Khabarovsk II at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kvant away: 0.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.51 goals for SKA Khabarovsk II, 1.21 for Kvant. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KVA 1–3 SKA · KVA 0–2 SKA · SKA 3–0 KVA · SKA 2–0 KVA

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3

SKA KHABAROVSK II

DLLLLL0–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–3

KVANT

LLLDLD0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Spartak Tambov	26	+33	63
2	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	26	+33	62
3	Ryazan	26	+32	53
4	Salyut-Belgorod	26	+21	49
5	Metallurg Lipetsk	26	+19	48
6	Saturn Ramenskoye	26	+13	48
7	Shumbrat	26	+11	44
8	Rodina Moskva III	26	+9	40
9	Avangard Kursk	26	−7	32
10	Orel	26	−15	29
11	Strogino	26	−12	28
12	Zenit Penza	26	−23	25
13	SKA Khabarovsk II	26	−15	24
14	Arsenal Tula II	26	−27	16
15	Rotor-2	26	−25	15
16	Kvant	26	−47	8