Shumbrat v Volna Nizhegorodskaya prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Shumbrat 1–2 Volna Nizhegorodskaya VOLNA NIZHEGORODSKAYA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Volna Nizhegorodskaya win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.446

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Volna Nizhegorodskaya win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Volna Nizhegorodskaya was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 29–26–45
1′KICK-OFF Shumbrat v Volna Nizhegorodskaya
2′Volna Nizhegorodskaya find the net on 1′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–18–71
2′We published Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 46%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 11–18–71
2′⚽ GOAL · 1' Shumbrat 0–1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Volna Nizhegorodskaya win: 46% at kick-off, 71% now
4′Volna Nizhegorodskaya ahead on 2′ through I. Severyanov. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–18–71
13′A goal for Shumbrat on 13′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 28–29–43
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Shumbrat 1–1 Volna Nizhegorodskaya
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Volna Nizhegorodskaya win: 46% at kick-off, 43% now
17′Volna Nizhegorodskaya score on 17′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 9–19–72
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Shumbrat 1–2 Volna Nizhegorodskaya
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Volna Nizhegorodskaya win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 7–19–74
31′A red card for Shumbrat on 31′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 7–19–74
31′🟥 RED CARD · 31' Shumbrat
36′We published Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 7–19–75
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Volna Nizhegorodskaya win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Shumbrat 1–2 Volna Nizhegorodskaya
46′SECOND HALF Shumbrat 1–2 Volna Nizhegorodskaya
58′We published Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
71′We published Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Volna Nizhegorodskaya win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
79′We published Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
86′We published Volna Nizhegorodskaya at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Volna Nizhegorodskaya win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Shumbrat 1–2 Volna Nizhegorodskaya
FTShumbrat 1–2 Volna Nizhegorodskaya · Volna Nizhegorodskaya win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Volna Nizhegorodskaya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shumbrat 29%, draw 26%, Volna Nizhegorodskaya 46%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Shumbrat v Volna NizhegorodskayaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Shumbrat win29%

Draw26%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya win46%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shumbrat

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 3

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · volna nizhegorodskaya winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Volna Nizhegorodskaya a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shumbrat v Volna Nizhegorodskaya~~1.03 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 40 v 56~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Volna Nizhegorodskaya win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shumbrat win	29%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Volna Nizhegorodskaya win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Shumbrat or draw	54%	–	–
Shumbrat clean sheet	26%	–	–
Volna Nizhegorodskaya clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.6 13.1 8.5 4.0 1 9.9 11.8 8.5 4.0 2 4.8 6.4 4.4 2.1 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shumbrat down, Volna Nizhegorodskaya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 225 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shumbrat at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Volna Nizhegorodskaya away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Shumbrat, 1.38 for Volna Nizhegorodskaya. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~VOL 3–3 SHU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

SHUMBRAT

LWLDDL2–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

VOLNA NIZHEGORODSKAYA

WWLLDD1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	−16	23
13	Orel	22	−13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6