Saturn Ramenskoye v Rodina Moskva III prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 15:01

Saturn Ramenskoye 1–2 Rodina Moskva III SATURN RAMENSKOYE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Saturn Ramenskoye win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.816

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Saturn Ramenskoye win at 52%.
1′KICK-OFF Saturn Ramenskoye v Rodina Moskva III
2′Much as we predicted: Saturn Ramenskoye was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–20–29
6′A goal for Rodina Moskva III on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 30–21–49
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Saturn Ramenskoye 0–1 Rodina Moskva III
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Saturn Ramenskoye win: 52% at kick-off, 30% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Rodina Moskva III win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Saturn Ramenskoye win 51%)
8′We said Saturn Ramenskoye at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–21–49
13′Rodina Moskva III score on 13′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 13–15–72
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Saturn Ramenskoye 0–2 Rodina Moskva III
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Saturn Ramenskoye win: 52% at kick-off, 13% now
14′We said Saturn Ramenskoye at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–2 · 13–15–72
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Saturn Ramenskoye win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
29′We said Saturn Ramenskoye at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–2 · 9–14–77
39′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 0–2 · 7–13–80
45′HALF-TIME Saturn Ramenskoye 0–2 Rodina Moskva III
46′SECOND HALF Saturn Ramenskoye 0–2 Rodina Moskva III
51′We said Saturn Ramenskoye at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–85
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Saturn Ramenskoye win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
67′Saturn Ramenskoye find the net on 67′. 1–2. 1–2 · 8–24–69
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Saturn Ramenskoye 1–2 Rodina Moskva III
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Saturn Ramenskoye win: 52% at kick-off, 8% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Saturn Ramenskoye win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Saturn Ramenskoye 1–2 Rodina Moskva III
FTSaturn Ramenskoye 1–2 Rodina Moskva III · Saturn Ramenskoye win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Saturn Ramenskoye are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Saturn Ramenskoye 52%, draw 20%, Rodina Moskva III 29%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Saturn Ramenskoye v Rodina Moskva IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Saturn Ramenskoye win52%

Draw20%

Rodina Moskva III win29%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 29

VenueStadion Saturn

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Saturn Ramenskoye

Rodina Moskva III

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 3

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · saturn ramenskoye winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Saturn Ramenskoye a 52% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Saturn Ramenskoye v Rodina Moskva III~~2.17 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 40 v 28~~4 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Saturn Ramenskoye win

Published at 47%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Saturn Ramenskoye win	52%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Rodina Moskva III win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Saturn Ramenskoye or draw	71%	–	–
Saturn Ramenskoye clean sheet	22%	–	–
Rodina Moskva III clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 2.2 4.4 3.0 1 5.8 7.7 6.3 3.3 2 5.6 8.5 6.6 3.4 3 4.0 6.1 4.7 2.5 4 2.2 3.4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Saturn Ramenskoye down, Rodina Moskva III across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,556 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.4% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Saturn Ramenskoye at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rodina Moskva III away: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Saturn Ramenskoye, 1.56 for Rodina Moskva III. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ROD 2–2 SAT · SAT 3–1 ROD · ROD 2–5 SAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

SATURN RAMENSKOYE

WDDWLW2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 5–1

RODINA MOSKVA III

WWWWWL3–2 · 3–2 · 5–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	−16	23
13	Orel	22	−13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6