Saturn Ramenskoye v Avangard Kursk prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Saturn Ramenskoye 5–1 Avangard Kursk SATURN RAMENSKOYE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Saturn Ramenskoye win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.317

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Saturn Ramenskoye win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Saturn Ramenskoye was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–22–25
1′KICK-OFF Saturn Ramenskoye v Avangard Kursk
8′A goal for Saturn Ramenskoye on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–15–9
8′We published Saturn Ramenskoye at 54%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–15–9
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Saturn Ramenskoye 1–0 Avangard Kursk
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Saturn Ramenskoye win: 54% at kick-off, 76% now
21′Saturn Ramenskoye score on 21′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
21′We published Saturn Ramenskoye at 54%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Saturn Ramenskoye 2–0 Avangard Kursk
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Saturn Ramenskoye win: 54% at kick-off, 92% now
27′Saturn Ramenskoye find the net on 26′. 3–0. 3–0 · 98–1–0
27′We published Saturn Ramenskoye at 54%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Saturn Ramenskoye 3–0 Avangard Kursk
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Saturn Ramenskoye win: 54% at kick-off, 98% now
30′A goal for Saturn Ramenskoye on 29′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
30′We published Saturn Ramenskoye at 54%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–0 · 100–0–0
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Saturn Ramenskoye 4–0 Avangard Kursk
31′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Saturn Ramenskoye 4–0 Avangard Kursk
46′SECOND HALF Saturn Ramenskoye 4–0 Avangard Kursk
56′Saturn Ramenskoye score on 56′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
56′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Saturn Ramenskoye 5–0 Avangard Kursk
86′Avangard Kursk find the net on 85′. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
86′6 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Saturn Ramenskoye 5–1 Avangard Kursk
FTFULL TIME Saturn Ramenskoye 5–1 Avangard Kursk
FTSaturn Ramenskoye 5–1 Avangard Kursk · Saturn Ramenskoye win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Saturn Ramenskoye are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Saturn Ramenskoye 54%, draw 21%, Avangard Kursk 25%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Saturn Ramenskoye v Avangard KurskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Saturn Ramenskoye win54%

Draw21%

Avangard Kursk win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 28

VenueStadion Saturn

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Saturn Ramenskoye

Avangard Kursk

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 3

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · saturn ramenskoye winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Saturn Ramenskoye a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Saturn Ramenskoye v Avangard Kursk~~1.87 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 40 v 30~~4 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Saturn Ramenskoye win	54%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Avangard Kursk win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Saturn Ramenskoye or draw	75%	–	–
Saturn Ramenskoye clean sheet	32%	–	–
Avangard Kursk clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.6 6.4 3.4 1 9.8 9.8 6.0 2.4 2 8.4 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 5.2 5.8 3.4 4 2.5 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Saturn Ramenskoye down, Avangard Kursk across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,554 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games this season, across 222 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Saturn Ramenskoye at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Avangard Kursk away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Saturn Ramenskoye, 1.16 for Avangard Kursk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~AVA 6–3 SAT · SAT 2–4 AVA · AVA 3–0 SAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

SATURN RAMENSKOYE

WWDDWL3–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–3

AVANGARD KURSK

WLDDLD3–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	−16	23
13	Orel	22	−13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6