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Model 1.2

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Salyut-Belgorod v Zenit Penza

Salyut-Belgorod
7–1Full time
Zenit Penza

Second League - Group 3 · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04
Salyut-Belgorod 7–1 Zenit Penza SALYUT-BELGOROD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Salyut-Belgorod win72%
The market said67%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.117
The market’s Brier score0.163

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Salyut-Belgorod win at 72%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Salyut-Belgorod 72% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–17–11
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Salyut-Belgorod v Zenit Penza
  4. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Salyut-Belgorod win: 72% at kick-off, 62% now
  5. 36′We said Salyut-Belgorod at 72%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 60%. 0–0 · 60–28–12
  6. 38′We said Salyut-Belgorod at 72%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–29–12
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Salyut-Belgorod 0–0 Zenit Penza
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Salyut-Belgorod 0–0 Zenit Penza
  9. 47′We said Salyut-Belgorod at 72%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–34–12
  10. 50′Salyut-Belgorod find the net on 50′. 1–0. 1–0 · 89–10–2
  11. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Salyut-Belgorod win: 72% at kick-off, 52% now
  12. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Salyut-Belgorod 1–0 Zenit Penza
  13. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Salyut-Belgorod win: 72% at kick-off, 89% now
  14. 51′We said Salyut-Belgorod at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–10–2
  15. 57′A goal for Salyut-Belgorod on 57′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  16. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Salyut-Belgorod 2–0 Zenit Penza
  17. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Salyut-Belgorod win: 72% at kick-off, 99% now
  18. 58′We said Salyut-Belgorod at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  19. 58′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  20. 59′Salyut-Belgorod score on 59′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  21. 59′We said Salyut-Belgorod at 72% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  22. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Salyut-Belgorod 3–0 Zenit Penza
  23. 60′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  24. 68′Salyut-Belgorod find the net on 68′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  25. 68′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  26. 68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Salyut-Belgorod 4–0 Zenit Penza
  27. 71′A goal for Zenit Penza on 71′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  28. 71′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  29. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Salyut-Belgorod 4–1 Zenit Penza
  30. 76′Salyut-Belgorod score on 76′ to make it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  31. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Salyut-Belgorod 5–1 Zenit Penza
  32. 77′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  33. 89′Salyut-Belgorod find the net on 88′. 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  34. 89′7 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  35. 89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Salyut-Belgorod 6–1 Zenit Penza
  36. 90′A goal for Salyut-Belgorod on 90′ — 7–1. 7–1 · 100–0–0
  37. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Salyut-Belgorod 7–1 Zenit Penza
  38. 91′That is 8, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 7–1 · 100–0–0
  39. FTFULL TIME Salyut-Belgorod 7–1 Zenit Penza
  40. FTSalyut-Belgorod 7–1 Zenit Penza · Salyut-Belgorod win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Salyut-Belgorod are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Salyut-Belgorod 72%, draw 17%, Zenit Penza 11%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Salyut-Belgorod v Zenit PenzaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Salyut-Belgorod win72%
Draw17%
Zenit Penza win11%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Salyut-Belgorod

Zenit Penza

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 3

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Salyut-Belgorod22+1639
12Zenit Penza21−1623

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · salyut-belgorod winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
72% The market67%
Us72%
Market67%

We make Salyut-Belgorod a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Salyut-Belgorod v Zenit Penza2.23 – 0.69
Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 12 SeptW5 D1 L0 · W0 D3 L3
Table places · points 39 v 236 v 12
The market · Salyut-Belgorod win67% · ours 72%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 10:46
Our probability · Salyut-Belgorod win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Salyut-Belgorod win72%67%+5
Draw17%20%−3
Zenit Penza win11%13%−2
Over 2.5 goals55%57%−2
Both teams to score43%49%−6
Over 1.5 goals78%78%0
Over 3.5 goals33%36%−3
Salyut-Belgorod or draw89%87%+2
Salyut-Belgorod clean sheet51%––
Zenit Penza clean sheet11%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.3%
0123450 5.3 4.3 1 12.6 7.8 2.9 2 13.3 8.9 3.1 3 9.8 6.5 2.3 4 5.6 3.7 5 2.6
under 2% 5% 12%+Salyut-Belgorod down, Zenit Penza across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.22
Over 2.55 of 9
Both scored6 of 9
Last meetingsZEN 1–2 SAL · ZEN 0–1 SAL · SAL 2–0 ZEN · ZEN 2–2 SAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

SALYUT-BELGOROD

WDWWWW3–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 6–1 · 3–0

ZENIT PENZA

DDLLLD0–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Volna Nizhegorodskaya22+3456
2FK Spartak Tambov22+2553
3Shumbrat22+1140
4Saturn Ramenskoye22+1040
5Ryazan21+2240
6Salyut-Belgorod22+1639
7Metallurg Lipetsk22+1438
8Avangard Kursk22−130
9Rodina Moskva III22+328
10Strogino22−1025
11SKA Khabarovsk II22−824
12Zenit Penza21−1623
13Orel22−1323
14Rotor-222−2014
15Arsenal Tula II22−2514
16Kvant22−426

The competition's standings before kick-off.