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Home › Football › Second League - Group 3 › Salyut-Belgorod v Arsenal Tula II

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Salyut-Belgorod v Arsenal Tula II

Salyut-Belgorod
3–0Full time
Arsenal Tula II

Second League - Group 3 · SAT 17 OCT · Salyut Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56
Salyut-Belgorod 3–0 Arsenal Tula II SALYUT-BELGOROD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Salyut-Belgorod win70%
The market said70%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.136
The market’s Brier score0.141

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Salyut-Belgorod win at 70%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Salyut-Belgorod 70% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–18–13
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Salyut-Belgorod v Arsenal Tula II
  4. 20′Salyut-Belgorod find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–3
  5. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Salyut-Belgorod 1–0 Arsenal Tula II
  6. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Salyut-Belgorod win: 70% at kick-off, 87% now
  7. 21′We said Salyut-Belgorod at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–3
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Salyut-Belgorod 1–0 Arsenal Tula II
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Salyut-Belgorod 1–0 Arsenal Tula II
  11. 68′We said Salyut-Belgorod at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  12. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Salyut-Belgorod win: 70% at kick-off, 90% now
  13. 71′A goal for Salyut-Belgorod on 71′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  14. 71′We said Salyut-Belgorod at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  15. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Salyut-Belgorod 2–0 Arsenal Tula II
  16. 76′We said Salyut-Belgorod at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  17. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Salyut-Belgorod win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
  18. 88′Salyut-Belgorod score on 88′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Salyut-Belgorod 3–0 Arsenal Tula II
  20. 89′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  21. FTFULL TIME Salyut-Belgorod 3–0 Arsenal Tula II
  22. FTSalyut-Belgorod 3–0 Arsenal Tula II · Salyut-Belgorod win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Salyut-Belgorod are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Salyut-Belgorod 70%, draw 17%, Arsenal Tula II 12%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Salyut-Belgorod v Arsenal Tula IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Salyut-Belgorod win70%
Draw17%
Arsenal Tula II win12%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 28

VenueSalyut Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Salyut-Belgorod

Arsenal Tula II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 3

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Salyut-Belgorod22+1639
15Arsenal Tula II22−2514

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · salyut-belgorod winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off
70% The market70%
Us70%
Market70%

We make Salyut-Belgorod a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Salyut-Belgorod v Arsenal Tula II2.19 – 0.75
Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 5 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 39 v 146 v 15
The market · Salyut-Belgorod win70% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 10:43
Our probability · Salyut-Belgorod win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 70% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Salyut-Belgorod win70%70%0
Draw17%19%−2
Arsenal Tula II win12%11%+1
Over 2.5 goals56%54%+2
Both teams to score46%45%+1
Over 1.5 goals78%76%+2
Over 3.5 goals34%34%0
Salyut-Belgorod or draw88%89%−1
Salyut-Belgorod clean sheet48%––
Arsenal Tula II clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.4%
0123450 5.1 4.6 1 12.1 8.2 3.3 2 12.4 9.2 3.5 3 9.1 6.6 2.5 4 5.1 3.7 5 2.3
under 2% 5% 12%+Salyut-Belgorod down, Arsenal Tula II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.14
Over 2.55 of 7
Both scored4 of 7
Last meetingsARS 0–4 SAL · ARS 2–3 SAL · SAL 2–1 ARS · SAL 2–0 ARS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

SALYUT-BELGOROD

LWDWWW0–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 6–1

ARSENAL TULA II

LLDDLW1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Volna Nizhegorodskaya22+3456
2FK Spartak Tambov22+2553
3Shumbrat22+1140
4Saturn Ramenskoye22+1040
5Ryazan21+2240
6Salyut-Belgorod22+1639
7Metallurg Lipetsk22+1438
8Avangard Kursk22−130
9Rodina Moskva III22+328
10Strogino22−1025
11SKA Khabarovsk II22−824
12Zenit Penza21−1623
13Orel22−1323
14Rotor-222−2014
15Arsenal Tula II22−2514
16Kvant22−426

The competition's standings before kick-off.