Rotor-2 v SKA Khabarovsk II prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Rotor-2 2–0 SKA Khabarovsk II SKA KHABAROVSK II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SKA Khabarovsk II win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.609

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.683

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SKA Khabarovsk II win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: SKA Khabarovsk II 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 37–25–38
1′KICK-OFF Rotor-2 v SKA Khabarovsk II
2′A goal for Rotor-2 on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 62–21–17
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Rotor-2 1–0 SKA Khabarovsk II
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' SKA Khabarovsk II win: 39% at kick-off, 17% now
2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Rotor-2 win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was SKA Khabarovsk II win 17%)
3′We said SKA Khabarovsk II at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 62–21–17
18′We said SKA Khabarovsk II at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
42′We said SKA Khabarovsk II at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
42′Rotor-2 score on 42′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
42′We said SKA Khabarovsk II at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 91–7–2
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' SKA Khabarovsk II win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Rotor-2 2–0 SKA Khabarovsk II
45′HALF-TIME Rotor-2 2–0 SKA Khabarovsk II
46′SECOND HALF Rotor-2 2–0 SKA Khabarovsk II
FTFULL TIME Rotor-2 2–0 SKA Khabarovsk II
FTRotor-2 2–0 SKA Khabarovsk II · SKA Khabarovsk II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with SKA Khabarovsk II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Rotor-2 37%, draw 25%, SKA Khabarovsk II 39%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Rotor-2 v SKA Khabarovsk IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rotor-2 win37%

Draw25%

SKA Khabarovsk II win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rotor-2

SKA Khabarovsk II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ska khabarovsk ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make SKA Khabarovsk II a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rotor-2 v SKA Khabarovsk II~~1.30 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 14 v 24~~14 v 11

~~The market · SKA Khabarovsk II win~~39% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SKA Khabarovsk II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rotor-2 win	37%	33%	+4
Draw	25%	28%	−3
SKA Khabarovsk II win	39%	39%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	50%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	55%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	30%	−3
Rotor-2 or draw	61%	61%	0
Rotor-2 clean sheet	27%	–	–
SKA Khabarovsk II clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.7 10.3 6.4 2.9 1 10.0 11.5 8.1 3.7 2 6.0 7.9 5.2 2.4 3 2.7 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rotor-2 down, SKA Khabarovsk II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,548 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rotor-2 at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). SKA Khabarovsk II away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Rotor-2, 1.34 for SKA Khabarovsk II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SKA 3–2 ROT · SKA 2–1 ROT · ROT 3–0 SKA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

ROTOR-2

LLLDLD1–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

SKA KHABAROVSK II

LLLLLW1–2 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	−16	23
13	Orel	22	−13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6