Rotor-2 v Arsenal Tula II prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rotor-2DrawArsenal Tula II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rotor-2 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Rotor-2 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Rotor-2 38%, draw 28%, Arsenal Tula II 34%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Rotor-2 v Arsenal Tula IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Rotor-2 win38%

Draw28%

Arsenal Tula II win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 10:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rotor-2

Arsenal Tula II

14Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rotor-2 winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Rotor-2 a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rotor-2 v Arsenal Tula II~~1.09 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 14~~14 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rotor-2 win	38%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Arsenal Tula II win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Rotor-2 or draw	66%	–	–
Rotor-2 clean sheet	36%	–	–
Arsenal Tula II clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 11.7 13.0 6.3 2.2 1 13.8 12.5 6.7 2.4 2 7.2 7.2 3.7 3 2.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rotor-2 down, Arsenal Tula II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,561 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 229 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rotor-2 at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Arsenal Tula II away: 0.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Rotor-2, 1.03 for Arsenal Tula II. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ARS 0–1 ROT · ARS 3–0 ROT · ROT 3–1 ARS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 11 Sept

ROTOR-2

LLDLDW0–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0

ARSENAL TULA II

LDDLWL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	−16	23
13	Orel	22	−13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6