Home › Football › Second League - Group 3 › Rodina Moskva III v Metallurg Lipetsk
Back

Rodina Moskva III v Metallurg Lipetsk
Rodina Moskva III
Metallurg LipetskSecond League - Group 3 · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Metallurg Lipetsk win at 43%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Metallurg Lipetsk was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 34–23–43
- 1′KICK-OFF Rodina Moskva III v Metallurg Lipetsk
- 36′Metallurg Lipetsk find the net on 36′. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–20–69
- 36′We published Metallurg Lipetsk at 43%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 10–20–69
- 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Rodina Moskva III 0–1 Metallurg Lipetsk
- 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
- 37′We published Metallurg Lipetsk at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
- 37′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–70
- 45′HALF-TIME Rodina Moskva III 0–1 Metallurg Lipetsk
- 46′SECOND HALF Rodina Moskva III 0–1 Metallurg Lipetsk
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
- 58′We published Metallurg Lipetsk at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
- 64′A goal for Metallurg Lipetsk on 64′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
- 64′We published Metallurg Lipetsk at 43%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 1–4–96
- 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Rodina Moskva III 0–2 Metallurg Lipetsk
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
- 84′We published Metallurg Lipetsk at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
- 94′Metallurg Lipetsk score on 90′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
- 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Rodina Moskva III 0–3 Metallurg Lipetsk
- FTFULL TIME Rodina Moskva III 0–3 Metallurg Lipetsk
- FTRodina Moskva III 0–3 Metallurg Lipetsk · Metallurg Lipetsk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassMetallurg Lipetsk are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Rodina Moskva III 34%, draw 23%, Metallurg Lipetsk 43%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Rodina Moskva III win34%
Metallurg Lipetsk win43%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00
RoundGroup 3 · matchday 28
Match timeline
All events
Rodina Moskva IIIMIN
Metallurg LipetskEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Rodina Moskva III
Metallurg Lipetsk
Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 3
Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 3
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Metallurg Lipetsk a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 41%, 43% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva III win | 34% | – | – |
| Draw | 23% | – | – |
| Metallurg Lipetsk win | 43% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 59% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | – | – |
| Rodina Moskva III or draw | 57% | – | – |
| Rodina Moskva III clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
| Metallurg Lipetsk clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2022/23Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept
RODINA MOSKVA III
METALLURG LIPETSK
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 22 | +34 | 56 |
| 2 | FK Spartak Tambov | 22 | +25 | 53 |
| 3 | Shumbrat | 22 | +11 | 40 |
| 4 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 22 | +10 | 40 |
| 5 | Ryazan | 21 | +22 | 40 |
| 6 | Salyut-Belgorod | 22 | +16 | 39 |
| 7 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 22 | +14 | 38 |
| 8 | Avangard Kursk | 22 | −1 | 30 |
| 9 | Rodina Moskva III | 22 | +3 | 28 |
| 10 | Strogino | 22 | −10 | 25 |
| 11 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 22 | −8 | 24 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 21 | −16 | 23 |
| 13 | Orel | 22 | −13 | 23 |
| 14 | Rotor-2 | 22 | −20 | 14 |
| 15 | Arsenal Tula II | 22 | −25 | 14 |
| 16 | Kvant | 22 | −42 | 6 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
FK Spartak Tambov
Shumbrat
Saturn Ramenskoye
Ryazan
Salyut-Belgorod
Avangard Kursk
Strogino
SKA Khabarovsk II
Zenit Penza
Orel
Rotor-2
Arsenal Tula II
Kvant