Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Second League - Group 3 › Rodina Moskva III v Metallurg Lipetsk

Back
Russia flag

Rodina Moskva III v Metallurg Lipetsk

Rodina Moskva III
0–3Full time
Metallurg Lipetsk

Second League - Group 3 · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42
Rodina Moskva III 0–3 Metallurg Lipetsk METALLURG LIPETSK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Metallurg Lipetsk win43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.493

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Metallurg Lipetsk win at 43%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Metallurg Lipetsk was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 34–23–43
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Rodina Moskva III v Metallurg Lipetsk
  4. 36′Metallurg Lipetsk find the net on 36′. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–20–69
  5. 36′We published Metallurg Lipetsk at 43%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 10–20–69
  6. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Rodina Moskva III 0–1 Metallurg Lipetsk
  7. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 43% at kick-off, 69% now
  8. 37′We published Metallurg Lipetsk at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
  9. 37′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–70
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Rodina Moskva III 0–1 Metallurg Lipetsk
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Rodina Moskva III 0–1 Metallurg Lipetsk
  12. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
  13. 58′We published Metallurg Lipetsk at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
  14. 64′A goal for Metallurg Lipetsk on 64′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
  15. 64′We published Metallurg Lipetsk at 43%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 1–4–96
  16. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Rodina Moskva III 0–2 Metallurg Lipetsk
  17. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
  18. 84′We published Metallurg Lipetsk at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  19. 94′Metallurg Lipetsk score on 90′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  20. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Rodina Moskva III 0–3 Metallurg Lipetsk
  21. FTFULL TIME Rodina Moskva III 0–3 Metallurg Lipetsk
  22. FTRodina Moskva III 0–3 Metallurg Lipetsk · Metallurg Lipetsk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metallurg Lipetsk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rodina Moskva III 34%, draw 23%, Metallurg Lipetsk 43%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Rodina Moskva III v Metallurg LipetskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rodina Moskva III win34%
Draw23%
Metallurg Lipetsk win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rodina Moskva III

Metallurg Lipetsk

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 3

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Metallurg Lipetsk22+1438
9Rodina Moskva III22+328

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metallurg lipetsk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off
43% The market–
Us43%

We make Metallurg Lipetsk a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Rodina Moskva III v Metallurg Lipetsk1.41 – 1.61
Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 5 SeptW5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 28 v 389 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45% 11 OCT 04:0517 OCT 15:10
Our probability · Metallurg Lipetsk win

Published at 41%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rodina Moskva III win34%––
Draw23%––
Metallurg Lipetsk win43%––
Over 2.5 goals58%––
Both teams to score59%––
Over 1.5 goals79%––
Over 3.5 goals36%––
Rodina Moskva III or draw57%––
Rodina Moskva III clean sheet21%––
Metallurg Lipetsk clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%
0123450 4.5 8.6 6.4 3.4 1 7.6 10.3 8.7 4.7 2 4.9 7.6 6.0 3.3 3 2.3 3.6 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Rodina Moskva III down, Metallurg Lipetsk across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting3.33
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsMET 3–2 ROD · MET 1–2 ROD · ROD 0–2 MET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

RODINA MOSKVA III

LWWWWW0–1 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 5–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

METALLURG LIPETSK

LWWDWW0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Volna Nizhegorodskaya22+3456
2FK Spartak Tambov22+2553
3Shumbrat22+1140
4Saturn Ramenskoye22+1040
5Ryazan21+2240
6Salyut-Belgorod22+1639
7Metallurg Lipetsk22+1438
8Avangard Kursk22−130
9Rodina Moskva III22+328
10Strogino22−1025
11SKA Khabarovsk II22−824
12Zenit Penza21−1623
13Orel22−1323
14Rotor-222−2014
15Arsenal Tula II22−2514
16Kvant22−426

The competition's standings before kick-off.