Orel v Rodina Moskva III prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OrelDrawRodina Moskva III

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rodina Moskva III 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rodina Moskva III are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Orel 34%, draw 23%, Rodina Moskva III 43%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Orel v Rodina Moskva IIIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Orel win34%

Draw23%

Rodina Moskva III win43%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orel

Rodina Moskva III

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · Second League - Group 3

Last match: 23 Oct · Second League - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
13	Orel	22	−13	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rodina moskva iii winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Rodina Moskva III a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Orel v Rodina Moskva III~~1.39 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 17 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 28~~13 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orel win	34%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Rodina Moskva III win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Orel or draw	57%	–	–
Orel clean sheet	21%	–	–
Rodina Moskva III clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.8 8.8 6.4 3.4 1 7.8 10.5 8.7 4.6 2 5.0 7.6 5.9 3.2 3 2.3 3.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orel down, Rodina Moskva III across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,561 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 229 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orel at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rodina Moskva III away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Orel, 1.59 for Rodina Moskva III. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ROD 0–1 ORE · ROD 2–2 ORE · ORE 0–2 ROD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 17 Sept

OREL

LWWLDW0–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

RODINA MOSKVA III

WWWWLW3–2 · 5–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	−16	23
13	Orel	22	−13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6