Metallurg Lipetsk v Saturn Ramenskoye prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Metallurg Lipetsk 3–0 Saturn Ramenskoye METALLURG LIPETSK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metallurg Lipetsk win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.432

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Metallurg Lipetsk win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Metallurg Lipetsk v Saturn Ramenskoye
2′Little has changed for our model: Metallurg Lipetsk 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
3′Little has changed for our model: Metallurg Lipetsk 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–30
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Metallurg Lipetsk 1–0 Saturn Ramenskoye
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Metallurg Lipetsk 2–0 Saturn Ramenskoye
40′D. Grigorjev scores for Metallurg Lipetsk on 36′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 46% at kick-off, 43% now
41′D. Grigorjev scores for Metallurg Lipetsk on 36′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 46% at kick-off, 43% now
45′HALF-TIME Metallurg Lipetsk 2–0 Saturn Ramenskoye
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
46′SECOND HALF Metallurg Lipetsk 2–0 Saturn Ramenskoye
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Metallurg Lipetsk 3–0 Saturn Ramenskoye
FTFULL TIME Metallurg Lipetsk 3–0 Saturn Ramenskoye
FTMetallurg Lipetsk 3–0 Saturn Ramenskoye · Metallurg Lipetsk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Metallurg Lipetsk win46%

Draw23%

Saturn Ramenskoye win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueStadion Metallurg

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Metallurg Lipetsk

Saturn Ramenskoye

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Metallurg Lipetsk	26	+19	48
6	Saturn Ramenskoye	26	+13	48

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metallurg lipetsk winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Metallurg Lipetsk a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metallurg Lipetsk win	46%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Saturn Ramenskoye win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Metallurg Lipetsk or draw	69%	–	–
Metallurg Lipetsk clean sheet	28%	–	–
Saturn Ramenskoye clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.0 7.6 4.4 1 9.5 10.5 7.1 3.1 2 7.2 9.0 5.7 2.5 3 4.0 5.0 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metallurg Lipetsk down, Saturn Ramenskoye across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,545 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.2% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metallurg Lipetsk at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Saturn Ramenskoye away: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Metallurg Lipetsk, 1.28 for Saturn Ramenskoye. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SAT 1–0 MET · MET 4–2 SAT · SAT 3–1 MET

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3

METALLURG LIPETSK

LLWWDW1–3 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

SATURN RAMENSKOYE

WWWDDW2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Spartak Tambov	27	+33	64
2	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	27	+33	63
3	Ryazan	27	+32	54
4	Salyut-Belgorod	26	+21	49
5	Metallurg Lipetsk	26	+19	48
6	Saturn Ramenskoye	26	+13	48
7	Shumbrat	27	+11	45
8	Rodina Moskva III	27	+10	43
9	Avangard Kursk	27	−7	33
10	Orel	26	−15	29
11	Strogino	26	−12	28
12	SKA Khabarovsk II	27	−13	27
13	Zenit Penza	27	−24	25
14	Rotor-2	27	−25	16
15	Arsenal Tula II	26	−27	16
16	Kvant	27	−49	8