Metallurg Lipetsk v Orel

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Metallurg Lipetsk win at 61%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Metallurg Lipetsk was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–22–17
3. 1′KICK-OFF Metallurg Lipetsk v Orel
4. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
5. 39′We said Metallurg Lipetsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–34–17
6. 40′Orel score on 40′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 20–29–51
7. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Metallurg Lipetsk 0–1 Orel
8. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 61% at kick-off, 20% now
9. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Orel win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Metallurg Lipetsk win 49%)
10. 41′We said Metallurg Lipetsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–29–52
11. 41′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 19–29–52
12. 45′HALF-TIME Metallurg Lipetsk 0–1 Orel
13. 46′SECOND HALF Metallurg Lipetsk 0–1 Orel
14. 51′We said Metallurg Lipetsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–29–57
15. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
16. 62′We said Metallurg Lipetsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–27–64
17. 73′We said Metallurg Lipetsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
18. 78′Orel find the net on 77′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
19. 78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Metallurg Lipetsk 0–2 Orel
20. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Metallurg Lipetsk win: 61% at kick-off, under 1% now
21. 91′A goal for Metallurg Lipetsk on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
22. 91′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–5–95
23. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Metallurg Lipetsk 1–2 Orel
24. FTFULL TIME Metallurg Lipetsk 1–2 Orel
25. FTMetallurg Lipetsk 1–2 Orel · Metallurg Lipetsk win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.