Kvant v Strogino prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Kvant 1–3 Strogino STROGINO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Strogino win~~50%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.371

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.248

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Strogino win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Strogino was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 29–21–50
1′KICK-OFF Kvant v Strogino
23′A goal for Kvant on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 54–24–23
23′We said Strogino at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 54–24–23
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Kvant 1–0 Strogino
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Strogino win: 50% at kick-off, 23% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Kvant win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Strogino win 23%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 55–24–21
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Strogino win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
34′We said Strogino at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 56–25–19
39′Strogino score on 39′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 26–31–42
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Kvant 1–1 Strogino
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Strogino win: 50% at kick-off, 42% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Strogino win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Kvant win 26%)
45′Strogino find the net on 45′. 1–2. 1–2 · 7–18–74
45′We published Strogino at 50%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–2 · 7–18–74
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Kvant 1–2 Strogino
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Strogino win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
45′HALF-TIME Kvant 1–2 Strogino
46′We published Strogino at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 7–18–75
46′SECOND HALF Kvant 1–2 Strogino
56′A goal for Strogino on 56′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–95
56′We published Strogino at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–3 · 1–5–95
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Kvant 1–3 Strogino
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Strogino win: 50% at kick-off, 95% now
57′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–95
83′We published Strogino at 50%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Strogino win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Kvant 1–3 Strogino
FTKvant 1–3 Strogino · Strogino win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Strogino are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kvant 29%, draw 21%, Strogino 50%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Kvant v StroginoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kvant win29%

Draw21%

Strogino win50%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 28

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kvant

Strogino

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Second League - Group 3

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
16	Kvant	22	−42	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · strogino winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

50% The market60%

Us50%

~~Market~~60%

We make Strogino a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kvant v Strogino~~1.39 – 1.92

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 25~~16 v 10

~~The market · Strogino win~~60% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Strogino win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kvant win	29%	17%	+12
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Strogino win	50%	60%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	64%	51%	+13
Both teams to score	63%	50%	+13
Over 1.5 goals	83%	74%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	42%	31%	+11
Kvant or draw	50%	40%	+10
Kvant clean sheet	15%	–	–
Strogino clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.3 7.7 6.7 4.3 2.1 1 5.7 9.1 9.1 5.8 2.9 2 3.6 6.6 6.3 4.0 3 3.1 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kvant down, Strogino across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,548 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.5% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kvant at home: 1.33 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Strogino away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Kvant, 1.92 for Strogino. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STR 3–1 KVA · KVA 0–3 STR · STR 3–1 KVA · STR 1–0 KVA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 5 Sept

KVANT

LLDLDL1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–3

STROGINO

WWLLLL2–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–5 · 0–1 · 1–6

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	−16	23
13	Orel	22	−13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6