FK Spartak Tambov v Avangard Kursk prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

FK Spartak Tambov 2–0 Avangard Kursk FK SPARTAK TAMBOV WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Spartak Tambov win~~64%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.200

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.134

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Spartak Tambov win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: FK Spartak Tambov was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–22–15
1′KICK-OFF FK Spartak Tambov v Avangard Kursk
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' FK Spartak Tambov win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
35′We said FK Spartak Tambov at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 52–33–15
42′We said FK Spartak Tambov at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–36–14
45′HALF-TIME FK Spartak Tambov 0–0 Avangard Kursk
46′SECOND HALF FK Spartak Tambov 0–0 Avangard Kursk
51′We said FK Spartak Tambov at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–42–14
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' FK Spartak Tambov win: 64% at kick-off, 44% now
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 42–45–13
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was FK Spartak Tambov win 44%)
58′We said FK Spartak Tambov at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–48–13
64′FK Spartak Tambov find the net on 63′. 1–0. 1–0 · 88–10–1
64′We published FK Spartak Tambov at 64%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–10–1
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' FK Spartak Tambov 1–0 Avangard Kursk
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' FK Spartak Tambov win: 64% at kick-off, 88% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' FK Spartak Tambov win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 53%)
69′We published FK Spartak Tambov at 64%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' FK Spartak Tambov win: 64% at kick-off, 94% now
82′We published FK Spartak Tambov at 64%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′A goal for FK Spartak Tambov on 88′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′We published FK Spartak Tambov at 64%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' FK Spartak Tambov 2–0 Avangard Kursk
FTFULL TIME FK Spartak Tambov 2–0 Avangard Kursk
FTFK Spartak Tambov 2–0 Avangard Kursk · FK Spartak Tambov win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Spartak Tambov are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FK Spartak Tambov 64%, draw 21%, Avangard Kursk 15%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on FK Spartak Tambov v Avangard KurskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FK Spartak Tambov win64%

Draw21%

Avangard Kursk win15%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FK Spartak Tambov

Avangard Kursk

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Second League - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fk spartak tambov winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

64% The market71%

Us64%

~~Market~~71%

We make FK Spartak Tambov a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FK Spartak Tambov v Avangard Kursk~~1.81 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 53 v 30~~2 v 8

~~The market · FK Spartak Tambov win~~71% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Spartak Tambov win The market, margin stripped

Published at 61%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FK Spartak Tambov win	64%	71%	−7
Draw	21%	19%	+2
Avangard Kursk win	15%	10%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	41%	43%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	70%	76%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−6
FK Spartak Tambov or draw	85%	90%	−5
FK Spartak Tambov clean sheet	50%	–	–
Avangard Kursk clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%

0123450 8.0 6.4 2.1 1 15.2 9.6 3.7 2 13.0 8.9 3.2 3 7.9 5.4 4 3.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FK Spartak Tambov down, Avangard Kursk across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,557 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.7% of games this season, across 225 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FK Spartak Tambov at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Avangard Kursk away: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for FK Spartak Tambov, 0.71 for Avangard Kursk. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AVA 0–2 FKS · FKS 0–1 AVA · AVA 3–2 FKS · AVA 2–0 FKS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 12 Sept

FK SPARTAK TAMBOV

WDWWDD3–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

AVANGARD KURSK

LDDLDL1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	−16	23
13	Orel	22	−13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6