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Avangard Kursk v Volna Nizhegorodskaya

Avangard Kursk

0–0Full time

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

Second League - Group 3 · SAT 10 OCT · Trudovye Rezervy Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Avangard Kursk 0–0 Volna Nizhegorodskaya VOLNA NIZHEGORODSKAYA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Volna Nizhegorodskaya win~~55%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.944

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.067

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Volna Nizhegorodskaya win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Volna Nizhegorodskaya was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 21–25–55
1′KICK-OFF Avangard Kursk v Volna Nizhegorodskaya
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Volna Nizhegorodskaya win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
45′HALF-TIME Avangard Kursk 0–0 Volna Nizhegorodskaya
46′SECOND HALF Avangard Kursk 0–0 Volna Nizhegorodskaya
FTFULL TIME Avangard Kursk 0–0 Volna Nizhegorodskaya
FTAvangard Kursk 0–0 Volna Nizhegorodskaya · Volna Nizhegorodskaya win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Avangard Kursk win22%

Draw23%

Volna Nizhegorodskaya win55%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

Venue · Trudovye Rezervy Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · volna nizhegorodskaya winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

55% The market65%

Us55%

~~Market~~65%

We make Volna Nizhegorodskaya a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · volna nizhegorodskaya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 67% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Avangard Kursk win	22%	13%	+8
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Volna Nizhegorodskaya win	55%	65%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−5
Both teams to score	46%	46%	0
Over 1.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	30%	−5
Avangard Kursk or draw	45%	35%	+10
Avangard Kursk clean sheet	20%	–	–
Volna Nizhegorodskaya clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 7.5 13.6 10.5 5.8 2.5 1 7.9 10.7 9.2 5.1 2.2 2 3.3 5.1 4.2 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Avangard Kursk down, Volna Nizhegorodskaya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,540 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 208 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Avangard Kursk at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Volna Nizhegorodskaya away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Avangard Kursk, 1.65 for Volna Nizhegorodskaya. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~VOL 2–0 AVA

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3

AVANGARD KURSK

LWLDDL0–2 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–4

VOLNA NIZHEGORODSKAYA

WWWWLL1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Spartak Tambov	26	+33	63
2	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	26	+33	62
3	Ryazan	26	+32	53
4	Salyut-Belgorod	26	+21	49
5	Metallurg Lipetsk	26	+19	48
6	Saturn Ramenskoye	26	+13	48
7	Shumbrat	26	+11	44
8	Rodina Moskva III	26	+9	40
9	Avangard Kursk	26	−7	32
10	Orel	26	−15	29
11	Strogino	26	−12	28
12	Zenit Penza	26	−23	25
13	SKA Khabarovsk II	26	−15	24
14	Arsenal Tula II	26	−27	16
15	Rotor-2	26	−25	15
16	Kvant	26	−47	8