Avangard Kursk v Shumbrat prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Avangard KurskDrawShumbrat

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Shumbrat 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shumbrat are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Avangard Kursk 31%, draw 24%, Shumbrat 45%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Avangard Kursk v ShumbratBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Avangard Kursk win31%

Draw24%

Shumbrat win45%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 10:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 30

VenueTrudovye Rezervy Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Avangard Kursk

Shumbrat

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Second League - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shumbrat winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Shumbrat a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Avangard Kursk v Shumbrat~~1.23 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 17 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 30 v 40~~8 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Avangard Kursk win	31%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Shumbrat win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Avangard Kursk or draw	55%	–	–
Avangard Kursk clean sheet	22%	–	–
Shumbrat clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.0 10.4 7.4 3.8 1 8.5 11.1 8.8 4.5 2 4.8 7.1 5.4 2.8 3 2.0 3.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Avangard Kursk down, Shumbrat across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,561 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 229 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Avangard Kursk at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shumbrat away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Avangard Kursk, 1.53 for Shumbrat. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SHU 0–0 AVA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 17 Sept

AVANGARD KURSK

DDLDLL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–5 · 0–2

SHUMBRAT

WLDDLL2–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	−16	23
13	Orel	22	−13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6