Arsenal Tula II v Orel prediction · Second League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Arsenal Tula II 1–0 Orel OREL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Orel win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.599

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Orel win at 37%.
1′KICK-OFF Arsenal Tula II v Orel
3′Much as we predicted: Arsenal Tula II was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Arsenal Tula II 1–0 Orel
19′16′ and it is 1–0: Arsenal Tula II have scored. 1–0 · 66–22–13
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Orel win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Orel win: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Orel win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Orel win: 37% at kick-off, 36% now
21′16′ and it is 1–0: A. Isaev on the scoresheet for Arsenal Tula II. 1–0 · 66–22–13
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Orel win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
40′We published Arsenal Tula II at 37%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
41′We published Arsenal Tula II at 37%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
45′HALF-TIME Arsenal Tula II 1–0 Orel
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Orel win: 37% at kick-off, 9% now
46′SECOND HALF Arsenal Tula II 1–0 Orel
FTFULL TIME Arsenal Tula II 1–0 Orel
FTArsenal Tula II 1–0 Orel · Orel win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Arsenal Tula II win37%

Draw26%

Orel win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Arsenal Tula II

Orel

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Orel	26	−15	29
15	Arsenal Tula II	26	−27	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · orel winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Orel a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal Tula II win	37%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Orel win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Arsenal Tula II or draw	63%	–	–
Arsenal Tula II clean sheet	29%	–	–
Orel clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.8 11.0 6.4 2.7 1 11.0 11.9 7.8 3.3 2 6.4 7.8 4.9 2.1 3 2.7 3.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal Tula II down, Orel across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,545 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.2% of games this season, across 213 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal Tula II at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Orel away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Arsenal Tula II, 1.25 for Orel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ORE 4–1 ARS · ORE 1–2 ARS · ARS 0–0 ORE · ARS 1–3 ORE

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3

ARSENAL TULA II

DLLDDL0–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

OREL

LLLLWW0–1 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FK Spartak Tambov	27	+33	64
2	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	27	+33	63
3	Ryazan	27	+32	54
4	Salyut-Belgorod	26	+21	49
5	Metallurg Lipetsk	26	+19	48
6	Saturn Ramenskoye	26	+13	48
7	Shumbrat	27	+11	45
8	Rodina Moskva III	27	+10	43
9	Avangard Kursk	27	−7	33
10	Orel	26	−15	29
11	Strogino	26	−12	28
12	SKA Khabarovsk II	27	−13	27
13	Zenit Penza	27	−24	25
14	Rotor-2	27	−25	16
15	Arsenal Tula II	26	−27	16
16	Kvant	27	−49	8