Arsenal Tula II v Kvant prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Arsenal Tula IIDrawKvant

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Arsenal Tula II 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arsenal Tula II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arsenal Tula II 61%, draw 20%, Kvant 19%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Arsenal Tula II v KvantBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Arsenal Tula II win61%

Draw20%

Kvant win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 3 · matchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arsenal Tula II

Kvant

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Second League - Group 3

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arsenal tula ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

61% The market55%

Us61%

~~Market~~55%

We make Arsenal Tula II a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arsenal Tula II v Kvant~~2.02 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 6~~15 v 16

~~The market · Arsenal Tula II win~~55% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arsenal Tula II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal Tula II win	61%	55%	+6
Draw	20%	25%	−5
Kvant win	19%	20%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	35%	0
Arsenal Tula II or draw	81%	80%	+1
Arsenal Tula II clean sheet	38%	–	–
Kvant clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.6%

0123450 4.7 5.6 2.5 1 10.6 9.3 4.8 2 10.0 9.6 4.8 3 6.7 6.4 3.2 4 3.4 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal Tula II down, Kvant across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,561 Second League - Group 3 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 3 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 229 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal Tula II at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kvant away: 0.50 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Arsenal Tula II, 0.99 for Kvant. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KVA 3–1 ARS · ARS 1–0 KVA · KVA 1–1 ARS · ARS 2–0 KVA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 3 this season · since 13 Sept

ARSENAL TULA II

LDDLWL1–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3

KVANT

LDLDLL0–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	22	+34	56
2	FK Spartak Tambov	22	+25	53
3	Shumbrat	22	+11	40
4	Saturn Ramenskoye	22	+10	40
5	Ryazan	21	+22	40
6	Salyut-Belgorod	22	+16	39
7	Metallurg Lipetsk	22	+14	38
8	Avangard Kursk	22	−1	30
9	Rodina Moskva III	22	+3	28
10	Strogino	22	−10	25
11	SKA Khabarovsk II	22	−8	24
12	Zenit Penza	21	−16	23
13	Orel	22	−13	23
14	Rotor-2	22	−20	14
15	Arsenal Tula II	22	−25	14
16	Kvant	22	−42	6