Zvezda St. Petersburg v Kosmos Dolgoprudny prediction · Second League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Zvezda St. PetersburgDrawKosmos Dolgoprudny

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kosmos Dolgoprudny 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kosmos Dolgoprudny are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zvezda St. Petersburg 36%, draw 23%, Kosmos Dolgoprudny 41%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Zvezda St. Petersburg v Kosmos DolgoprudnyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Zvezda St. Petersburg win36%

Draw23%

Kosmos Dolgoprudny win41%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 2 · matchday 30

VenueStadion Nova Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zvezda St. Petersburg

Kosmos Dolgoprudny

7Days since last match20

Last match: 24 Oct · Second League - Group 2

Last match: 11 Oct · Second League - Group 2

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	−6	28
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	0	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kosmos dolgoprudny winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Kosmos Dolgoprudny a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zvezda St. Petersburg v Kosmos Dolgoprudny~~1.50 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 28~~10 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zvezda St. Petersburg win	36%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Kosmos Dolgoprudny win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Zvezda St. Petersburg or draw	59%	–	–
Zvezda St. Petersburg clean sheet	21%	–	–
Kosmos Dolgoprudny clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.6 7.6 5.8 3.1 1 7.1 10.4 8.4 4.5 2 5.1 7.9 6.2 3.3 3 2.6 4.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zvezda St. Petersburg down, Kosmos Dolgoprudny across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,443 Second League - Group 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Second League - Group 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zvezda St. Petersburg at home: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kosmos Dolgoprudny away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Zvezda St. Petersburg, 1.61 for Kosmos Dolgoprudny. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KOS 2–2 ZVE · KOS 2–0 ZVE · ZVE 1–0 KOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Second League - Group 2 this season · since 30 Aug

ZVEZDA ST. PETERSBURG

LLLWWL0–3 · 1–3 · 1–8 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 0–1

KOSMOS DOLGOPRUDNY

WLLWWW2–1 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Murom	21	+18	44
2	Dinamo St. Petersburg	20	+22	42
3	Luki-Energiya	21	+18	42
4	Baltika II	21	+19	40
5	Chertanovo Moscow	21	+21	39
6	Torpedo Vladimir	20	+5	32
7	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	21	−6	28
8	Tver	21	−6	24
9	Cherepovets	20	−11	24
10	Zvezda St. Petersburg	20	0	24
11	Dinamo Vologda	20	+3	23
12	Spartak Moscow 2	21	−6	23
13	Yenisey II	21	−17	19
14	Iskra Smolensk	21	−25	15
15	Irkutsk	21	−35	11